Good Variance vs Bad Variance vs Average Variance ?

  • 10 replies
    • BObamaJr
      BObamaJr
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.01.2012 Posts: 232
      I play NL10 SH :)

      Good Variance - running 10 BI over AI EV

      Average Variance - within 3/4 BI of EV

      Bad Variance - running 25 BI under AI EV :(
    • hackbinder
      hackbinder
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      Joined: 15.05.2009 Posts: 618
      I would define it as neither good nor bad.

      Variance is the sum of possibilities that can be expected. What makes it good or bad is a human judgement. Much like rain is neither good nor bad. Someone without a jacket sees it as bad. Someone with plants sees it as good. But both scenarios have nothing to do with the rain, but the human judgement of that rain. But the rain itself, is not good or bad. Humans make it so.

      As far as swings of luck goes, it is very difficult to say because human play factors in quite a bit. It is difficult to say that small swings of one player and larger swings of another player are all that different. Just like it is difficult to say that two players that have more or less equal swings are really all that similar.

      So we can really only judge one player against her/himself. And this assuming that that player has played consistently all the way through. So the best way to measure variance would be with a bot because only they can play consistently. And even then, that bot would have to play against other bots to eliminate the oh so complicating "human factor". And that bot would have to play against ONLY the same bots time and time again to truly and accurately say how much variance one strategy has over another playing strategy.

      But even then, what constitutes a "swing"? I ask this because one big swing has inside it many smaller swings. And whos to say that a positive graph over 100K hands isn't just a blip of a much larger 1 million hand swing that is negative?

      In the end, taking all these things together, one can say that if one plays the ABC for a particular stake (ABC is not the same in micro as it is for high stakes), any curve in the graph that stays more or less near the mean (the overall, average diagonal line of the graph) is more likely, and any curve that strays far from the mean is less likely.

      But the more likely and the less likely are all still possible, therefore the more likely can still happen fewer times, and the less likely can still happen more times, simply because they are all within the realm of what is possible.

      Does that make sense?
    • diversfx
      diversfx
      Silver
      Joined: 24.12.2010 Posts: 627
      As far as swings of luck goes, it is very difficult to say because human play factors in quite a bit.

      +1

      good v is when you suckout

      bad v is when your villain suckouts

      ie running in too AA five times in a row with kk bad V

      having AA getting called 5 times with kk good V
    • IngridN
      IngridN
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      Joined: 02.03.2011 Posts: 12,162
      This has been moved to the relevant board guys! :)
    • martinemem
      martinemem
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      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 596
      good varians: roi 4884%

      bad varians: roi -1.2%
    • TiciBoy
      TiciBoy
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.01.2010 Posts: 1,235
      Variance is mathematical/statistical value and will always be the same. There is no such thing as god/bad/average variance.
    • martinemem
      martinemem
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      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 596
      am i right if i say i have the highest roi in the world with 4884% ;D?
    • TiciBoy
      TiciBoy
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.01.2010 Posts: 1,235
      Originally posted by martinemem
      am i right if i say i have the highest roi in the world with 4884% ;D?
      No.

      I have infinite ROI in freerolls. :f_cool:
    • gadget51
      gadget51
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      Joined: 23.06.2008 Posts: 5,622
      :s_cool:
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
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      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      Originally posted by TiciBoy
      Originally posted by martinemem
      am i right if i say i have the highest roi in the world with 4884% ;D?
      No.

      I have infinite ROI in freerolls. :f_cool:
      Only if your time has no value ;)