# Good Variance vs Bad Variance vs Average Variance ?

• Bronze
Joined: 10.09.2011
Hello,
How would you define both ?

I just also tried to add another term Average Variance = your regular play..
• 10 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 29.01.2012
I play NL10 SH

Good Variance - running 10 BI over AI EV

Average Variance - within 3/4 BI of EV

Bad Variance - running 25 BI under AI EV
• Bronze
Joined: 15.05.2009
I would define it as neither good nor bad.

Variance is the sum of possibilities that can be expected. What makes it good or bad is a human judgement. Much like rain is neither good nor bad. Someone without a jacket sees it as bad. Someone with plants sees it as good. But both scenarios have nothing to do with the rain, but the human judgement of that rain. But the rain itself, is not good or bad. Humans make it so.

As far as swings of luck goes, it is very difficult to say because human play factors in quite a bit. It is difficult to say that small swings of one player and larger swings of another player are all that different. Just like it is difficult to say that two players that have more or less equal swings are really all that similar.

So we can really only judge one player against her/himself. And this assuming that that player has played consistently all the way through. So the best way to measure variance would be with a bot because only they can play consistently. And even then, that bot would have to play against other bots to eliminate the oh so complicating "human factor". And that bot would have to play against ONLY the same bots time and time again to truly and accurately say how much variance one strategy has over another playing strategy.

But even then, what constitutes a "swing"? I ask this because one big swing has inside it many smaller swings. And whos to say that a positive graph over 100K hands isn't just a blip of a much larger 1 million hand swing that is negative?

In the end, taking all these things together, one can say that if one plays the ABC for a particular stake (ABC is not the same in micro as it is for high stakes), any curve in the graph that stays more or less near the mean (the overall, average diagonal line of the graph) is more likely, and any curve that strays far from the mean is less likely.

But the more likely and the less likely are all still possible, therefore the more likely can still happen fewer times, and the less likely can still happen more times, simply because they are all within the realm of what is possible.

Does that make sense?
• Bronze
Joined: 24.12.2010
As far as swings of luck goes, it is very difficult to say because human play factors in quite a bit.

+1

good v is when you suckout

ie running in too AA five times in a row with kk bad V

having AA getting called 5 times with kk good V
• Bronze
Joined: 02.03.2011
This has been moved to the relevant board guys!
• Bronze
Joined: 05.07.2011
good varians: roi 4884%

• Bronze
Joined: 13.01.2010
Variance is mathematical/statistical value and will always be the same. There is no such thing as god/bad/average variance.
• Bronze
Joined: 05.07.2011
am i right if i say i have the highest roi in the world with 4884% ;D?
• Bronze
Joined: 13.01.2010
Originally posted by martinemem
am i right if i say i have the highest roi in the world with 4884% ;D?
No.

I have infinite ROI in freerolls.
• Bronze
Joined: 23.06.2008
• Bronze
Joined: 08.11.2008
Originally posted by TiciBoy
Originally posted by martinemem
am i right if i say i have the highest roi in the world with 4884% ;D?
No.

I have infinite ROI in freerolls.
Only if your time has no value