[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH deep, ugly river spot

    • awesomeo
      awesomeo
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2009 Posts: 303
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($134)
      ($51.25)
      UTG ($51.84)
      UTG+1 ($47.92)
      UTG+2 ($92.45)
      Hero ($98.35)

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.50, SB raises to $5, fold, Hero raises to $12.50, SB calls $7.50

      FLOP ($25.50) Q:heart: K:diamond: K:spade:

      SB checks, Hero bets $15.75, SB calls $15.75

      TURN ($57) Q:heart: K:diamond: K:spade: 8:heart:

      SB checks, Hero bets $31.50, SB calls $31.50

      RIVER ($120) Q:heart: K:diamond: K:spade: 8:heart: A:heart:

      SB bets $40, Hero calls $38.60 (AI)

      Villain is decent 17/14/9 3bet. I decided to go for bluff 4bet with my blockers because: he 3bets wide and we are deep. Then the river is really ugly. I need to win 20% for breakeven call and I have it against range of AA, AK, KQ, QQ. Problem is I block so much of the worse/ split hands in that range + it doesn't make any sense for him to donk river with QQ, KQ. AA is unlikly for him to flat the 4bet with, 88, JT or FD is wishfull thinking here so all that's left seems to be AK. On the other hand with only 20% needed could I ever fold here?
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