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[NL2-NL10] NL4 FR KTo

    • JohnDoe1313
      Joined: 04.01.2011 Posts: 5,198
      Party, $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP2: $4.73 (118.3 bb)
      UTG+2: $1.54 (38.5 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $1.60 (40 bb)
      CO: $4 (100 bb)
      SB: $4 (100 bb)
      MP1: $5.51 (137.8 bb)
      MP3: $4.06 (101.5 bb)
      BB: $11.31 (282.8 bb) - VPIP: 33, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 24

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with T K
      5 folds, Hero raises to $0.12, SB folds, BB calls $0.08

      Flop: ($0.26) 8 T Q (2 players)
      BB bets $0.04, Hero raises to $0.27, BB calls $0.23

      Turn: ($0.80) Q (2 players)
      BB bets $0.38, Hero raises to $1.21 and is all-in, BB folds

      Results: $1.56 pot ($0.07 rake)

      Hey. I think BB wouldn't mindonk many made hands, so he probably has a weak range. I raise for value, I expect to get call with:

      Board: T:diamond: 8:diamond: Q:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      SB     39.04%  38.30%   0.74% { 99, JTs, T9s, AdJd, KdJd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Kd7d, Qd7d, 9d7d, Ad6d, Qd6d, 7d6d, Ad5d, Qd5d, 6d5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, JTo, T9o }
      BB     60.96%  60.21%   0.74% { KdTc }

      His turn halfpot donk seems weak to me, like he wants to see cheaply another community card. I don't think there are many Qx in his range, so I push for value from all the weaker hands with 68% equity. Is my analysis good or far from it? Thanks
  • 1 reply
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678

      I would raise $0.30-0.35 on the Flop just for value.
      Now when he calls I still think he can have draws but also Qx in his range, not many since the stronger ones would probably do something else than donk/call

      Anyways this is really situational because if he only has draws this becomes an autoshove. If he indeed has some Qx in his range, you have to call and bluffcatch basically on blanks

      Mostly when you play, you have a pretty good idea how donky he can be so I can't give you a static answer here but I think it explains adequately what I mean

      best regards,