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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 AKo squeeze

    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Black
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,335
      $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players -

      Hero (BB): $48.50
      UTG: $57.90
      MP: $47.75
      CO: $75.91
      BTN: $96.77
      SB: $22.55

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with A :diamond: K :spade:
      UTG raises to $1.50, MP calls $1.50, 2 folds, SB calls $1.25, Hero raises to $7.50, UTG calls $6, 2 folds

      Flop: ($18.00) K :diamond: J :club: 4 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $9.50, UTG raises to $50.40, Hero calls $31.50 all in

      Turn: ($100.00) 3 :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      River: ($100.00) 5 :spade: (2 players - 1 is all in)


      UTG (412 hands)
      VPIP/PFR/UTGraise1st/foldto3b/4bet 25/21/18/47/12
      foldtoCbet3betpot 33(2/6)
      AFflop/AFqflop 3,3/38
      WtSD/W$SD 23/58


      On the flop I have a strong hand, but not much second best hands, which could pay me off. Villain can have some draws, but as I have Ad, he cant have the nutFD. What would you play here?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello pcfmcc02,

      The only problem here is again that you should the A. :( For that given reason his range might even be towards rather stronger hand. But practically if we add him into wide range which tells the fold to 3bet:

      Board: K:diamond: J:club: 4:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    57.10%  56.81%   0.29% { JJ, 44, KJs+, QdJd, QdTd, KJo+ }
      UTG+1  42.90%  42.61%   0.29% { AdKs }

      we might even still earn profit from here. We need ~35% equity. So depends really on the range we think he is on. :)

      But now again, would he be shipping the flop with total crap? His W$SD seems to be also kind of high which of course could be just the case that he has been running good but I would usually be more scared of those.

      Best Regards.