[NL2-NL10] NL5 SH KQs strong draw on flop

    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      Everest - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      SB: $5.33
      BB: $1.81
      Hero (UTG): $10.05
      CO: $3.83
      BTN: $4.64

      SB posts SB $0.03, BB posts BB $0.05

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.08) Hero has Q:spade: K:spade:

      Hero raises to $0.16, fold, BTN calls $0.16, fold, fold

      Flop: ($0.40, 2 players) 9:spade: A:diamond: J:spade:
      Hero bets $0.24, BTN raises to $1.12, Hero raises to $9.89 and is all-in

      spew?

      [edit: btn is 44/16/29(7)raisecbet/47hands]
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Tomaloc,

      The problem here is that do you think he would ever even raise here with worse than 2pairs? Especially vs such a raise size I would say it's towards to a rather stronger hand. I might even be towards Betting a bit bigger on the flop and Bet/Fold it vs such a big raise.

      Board: 9:spade: A:diamond: J:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    37.85%  37.85%   0.00% { KsQs }
      UTG+1  62.15%  62.15%   0.00% { JJ, 99, AJs, A9s, AJo, A9o }

      Or do you expect him to go broke with loose range? Lets say also AQ/AK:

      Board: 9:spade: A:diamond: J:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    40.53%  40.33%   0.19% { KsQs }
      UTG+1  59.47%  59.28%   0.19% { JJ, 99, AJs+, A9s, AJo+, A9o }

      Still the equity isn't going to be enough. We would need ~48% equity if rake excluded.

      Best Regards.
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      as for raise size i'm 99% sure he just clicked the "bet pot" button :f_biggrin: (there are only "minbet" and "betpot" buttons which even place the bet already, anything else you have to adjust manually... so that's why you see so much of minbetting and strongbetting in my hands)
      this is what i hate about everest, people bet/raise pot just like that and you can't really read them for it.

      i decide to broke because of his raise cbet stat, he did it c/r before with the same relative sizings and once folded on turn after being called on flop (ie bluff). so he may have bluffs and draws often i think.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      You can't take into account there raise CB stat while you have only 47 hands on him.