[NL20-NL50] nl50 set on worst possible flop

    • urmo1
      urmo1
      Black
      Joined: 02.03.2008 Posts: 718
      Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1719305
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      MP: $48.57
      CO: $50.25
      BTN: $55.48
      Hero (SB): $74.44
      BB: $50.00
      UTG: $14.54

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with 8:diamond: 8:club:
      1 fold, MP raises to $1.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.25, 1 fold

      Flop: ($5.00) 8:heart: 7:heart: 9:heart: (3 players)
      Hero bets $3.50, MP raises to $15.28, BTN folds, Hero raises to $72.94 all in, MP calls $31.79 all in

      No info about the villain, whatsoever. can i expect an unknown to have enough semibluff hands in his range for shove to be profitable? calling should obv be out of the question bc of the sizing. also - avg villain would flat TOP2 here? im guessing most of them would raise it.
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello urmo1,

      As long he may have even 2pairs as 97/77/pair+FD I doubt that I am planning to get away here. Most likely I would bet the flop bigger ~$4 and then also go broke. He doesn't seem to be a very good player either with his not full stack.

      Best Regards.
    • urmo1
      urmo1
      Black
      Joined: 02.03.2008 Posts: 718
      okay.
      but for the sake of argument - lets say the villain was kind of nitty over 1k hands (raise cbet 9%) and like std 19/17 stats for example. do we plan to get away then?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by urmo1
      okay.
      but for the sake of argument - lets say the villain was kind of nitty over 1k hands (raise cbet 9%) and like std 19/17 stats for example. do we plan to get away then?
      Yep, then would it be a bit different case. Cause then we can't really beat much. Cause I wouldn't really expect him to have something like TP+FD or whatsoever. He mainly will have something like SCs/PPs/suited broadways/AXs hands. Vs that kind of range our equity should be pretty bad and therefore I might even plan to Bet/Fold it and cry about it. :D

      But I guess then he wouldn't have such a stack either which practically indicates to bad player. Also what would be then important is the stats of WTSD/W$SD. For example if very high W$SD then even more towards folding. Cause what we beat? Just 77. Not sure if he even raises T9, maybe at the best just T:h9x.