[NL2-NL10] Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #29 08.04.12

    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello PokerStrategists,

      as some of you may have heard that we have a homework in each of our No-Limit Hand Evaluation Coachings.

      Here is the homework for the coaching from April 8th, please note:

      • Everybody is invited to share his thoughts here regardless if you joined the last coaching or not.
      • Whoever is active in the homework threads can get a free database analysis by us which helps you to improve your game.

      Find the hand below waiting for you opinions and analysis posted in this thread. Furthermore do not forget to join our next coaching on Sunday, April 15th at 1 PM GMT.

      Opponent is fish with 50/17, and aggresion frequency on river of 100% (sample 3/3). And he always bet pot size.
      PartyGaming - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 7 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BTN: $2.12
      SB: $6.98
      BB: $11.12
      UTG: $17.80
      UTG+1: $5.61
      Hero (MP): $14.92
      CO: $8.80

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has K:diamond: K:heart:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.40, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.30

      Flop: ($0.85, 2 players) A:club: K:spade: 8:spade:
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, BB calls $0.60

      Turn: ($2.05, 2 players) T:club:
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.40, BB calls $1.40

      River: ($4.85, 2 players) Q:heart:
      BB bets $4.61, Hero calls $4.61
  • 6 replies
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      Untill the river its all easy. On the river its either bluff or straight. But the player is unknown, I guess its bettter to take safe line and not risk half stack. We have to win 30 % of the time, which is questionable, and often it might be a coinflip anyway (bluff vs straigt), plus more rake.
    • EnterG
      EnterG
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.01.2010 Posts: 632
      With these stats i think opponent would play like this any A and any missed flushdraws.Not a good river card though he could have a J there and beat us.Range would be any Jxs maybe 8J,9J,10J,AJ,10Q,JK is little unlikely because of hero kings.I think these cards who may give him even a backdoor straight or a gutshot would call on the flop and with this turn would call again.
      I think calling on the river is the best option.If we raise we will only be called or reraised by a J which beats us and i think all the worst hands would fold.

      IMO ...
    • Aerox232
      Aerox232
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.04.2011 Posts: 422
      he coud have somthing like AK KQ stuf hands . even QQ JJ and 88 mybe he slowplay AA
      he coud have Top pair whit draw or lot of other draws, Most time i put him on AJ whit fflush draw. but then i think he woud raise flop and turn..

      MP3 60.00% 60.00% 0.00% KdKh
      SB 40.00% 40.00% 0.00% AA, QQ, TT, 88, AJs+, KTs+, AJo+, KQo
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      I'd bet bigger on flop/turn and call river.

      Villain is playing 50% of his hands- that is a huge amount and on flop/turn he is calling with tons of hands. I think it would even be a mistake to try and put him logically on a range here as he has so many hands that he would never put him on --> my opinion we need 30% equity, I think he has many more bluffs than this in his range, it's up to him to decide with which hands he decides to bet out, my opinion it's that there are more than 30% of his total range on the river.
    • mawaykid
      mawaykid
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.11.2009 Posts: 2,773
      I bet bigger flop and turn too.

      I think he have several Jx in their bet river range. This guy never fold gutshot, fd with J, or maybe J9(xD ).

      we beat missed fd, but we dont know if it is capable of do this with Ax, QT. and I think these combos are going to be more than 33% of its range.
      So I would call here
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello,

      We definitely have to Bet the flop & turn bigger, it's an easy Bet for value and he most likely is willing to pay anyways. If he has any kind of hand he is willing to pay anyways. :)

      But otherwise on the river it's kind of cruel spot that he even pots like that but as long his range is so wide and he could even overplay 2pairs/has also maybe even like 88/TT in his range and obviously missed FDs I would Call it down.

      Best Regards.