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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL 25 too thin on the river?

    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players -

      CO: $29.91 - VPIP: 29, PFR: 20, 3B: 6, AF: 1.8, Hands: 167
      Hero (BTN): $65.63 -
      SB: $25.00 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 14, 3B: 4, AF: 11.0, Hands: 134
      BB: $10.07 - VPIP: 39, PFR: 14, 3B: 0, AF: 3.8, Hands: 59
      UTG: $21.55 - VPIP: 57, PFR: 19, 3B: 22, AF: 1.0, Hands: 21
      MP: $35.59 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 18, 3B: 0, AF: 1.3, Hands: 61

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with 5 :spade: 5 :club:
      1 fold, MP raises to $0.62, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.62, 1 fold, BB calls $0.37

      Flop: ($1.96) 4 :heart: 5 :diamond: 3 :diamond: (3 players)
      BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $1.60, BB folds, MP calls $1.60

      Turn: ($5.16) 2 :club: (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $3.80, MP calls $3.80

      River: ($12.76) T :club: (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $6.30, MP calls $6.30

      Is this too thin to be profitable on the river? Expected to get called by mid overpairs and 2 pair and also did not expect too many Ax combos in his range.

      Looking back I think it is a bad bet because of villain's c/c line on the flop which he would not take with pairs or any worse hands that would pay me off on the river. Just getting random Ax/6x and few 2pair combos in his calling range on the river?
  • 2 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      I think you can find a vbet there but half pot is way too much considering how thin it is.

      If you want to get called by midpairs you should bet around $3. He cbets most strong hands anyway so he clearly has a bluffcatcher. He can have 66 and some Ax, there's no doubt about that.

      Then again, you need him to be quite showdown happy to put in a value bet. It's usually thin and given your sizing you won't get called by worse enough considering his range imo.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello DeMarcohsp,

      Most likely I would just ship the thin value-bet on the river. Especially with the plan on the turn to protect my hand from FD or such type of hands and get value there. He has too many combos of Ax there.

      Not sure if he even calls 1/2 pot size there with PPs. :( Most likely only hope is that he has 22-44.

      Best Regards.