# Maths question

• Bronze
Joined: 31.05.2010
If you raise from the button and there's 4% chance that SB's gonna 3bet you, and 5% chance that the BB will, what's total chance of getting reraised?
• 15 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 24.08.2011
3% or 6% Not sure which.

Workings
3 scenariors= sbraise+bbraise+noraise/number of possible outcomes

4+5+0 /3

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• Bronze
Joined: 24.08.2011
3% or 6% Not sure which.

Workings
3 scenariors= sbraise+bbraise+noraise/number of possible outcomes

4+5+0 /3

not sure if you have to multiply it by the number of villians, that would make 6%

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• Black
Joined: 02.11.2008
4.5%?

Presumably BB isn't 3b 5% once SB already 3bs. Ofc, your chance of being either 3b or cold 4b is higher than above.
• Bronze
Joined: 14.05.2010
imo it's 5%, just because we should only count when bb 3bets, as when sb 3bets, we can'y get 3bet for a second time

now there might be a difference if sb CC and BB squeezes more than 5%
• Coach
Coach
Joined: 03.08.2009
96% chance SB will NOT 3bet you
95% chance BB will NOT 3bet you

Probability (neither will 3bet) = (0.96 * 0.95) = 0.912

Probability of getting 3bet is about 8.8%.

Have to say it's worrying the lack of basic maths understanding in this thread amongst poker players
• Bronze
Joined: 14.05.2010
ussualy i count it like weazel said, but somehow this time it looked different to me, hmm brainfart

EDIT: in HU you just see 1 player, so it's easier
• Silver
Joined: 16.12.2011
cause 5th grade math is too hard for high rollers

0.05x0.96+0.04x0.95=0.086 (only around)

2 scenarios, 1Player 3bets and other folds or 2player 3bets and other folds.

ofcourse someone might 4bet tighter

8.6%
• Black
Joined: 02.11.2008
All this shows is how little maths has to do with playing winning poker
• Bronze
Joined: 24.08.2011
If their 3bet range is so low here I'm raising every time. only getting 3bet >10% of the time so long term +ev.

Is this correct thinking?
• Black
Joined: 02.11.2008
If their 3bet range is so low here I'm raising every time. only getting 3bet >10% of the time so long term +ev.

Is this correct thinking?
Not necessarily. Doesn't mean they are folding to steal. They might call a ton and play super aggro postflop.
• Bronze
Joined: 24.08.2011
So we need to know their Call a raise % too or we don't have all the info.
• Gold
Joined: 02.01.2009
So we need to know their Call a raise % too or we don't have all the info.
really all we need is the fold to steal stat
• Silver
Joined: 16.12.2011
and if they call a lot, you can still steal if they fold to cbet a lot
• Bronze
Joined: 04.01.2012
The way I worked it.

SB will always 3bet with a 4% frequency.

However BB can only 3bet when SB hasnt. So because SB doesnt 3bet 96% of the time. The BB 5% 3bet is actually 4.8% (0.05 x 0.96)

So we add 4% (times SB 3bets) to 4.8% (times BB can 3bet if he gets the chance) to get 8.8% total chance of being 3bet

It gets more complicated when we start considering cold 4bets and how SB flatting will increase BB's 3bet etc etc
• Bronze
Joined: 22.11.2009
You can get all accurate, or you can just go 'Oooo 5% + 4% = 9%' and you're about right. Guess how I do it.