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Maths question

  • 15 replies
    • Deadbillis
      Deadbillis
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.08.2011 Posts: 308
      3% or 6% Not sure which.

      Workings
      3 scenariors= sbraise+bbraise+noraise/number of possible outcomes

      4+5+0 /3





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    • Deadbillis
      Deadbillis
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.08.2011 Posts: 308
      Originally posted by Deadbillis
      3% or 6% Not sure which.

      Workings
      3 scenariors= sbraise+bbraise+noraise/number of possible outcomes

      4+5+0 /3

      not sure if you have to multiply it by the number of villians, that would make 6%





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    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      4.5%?

      Presumably BB isn't 3b 5% once SB already 3bs. Ofc, your chance of being either 3b or cold 4b is higher than above.
    • phantommm92
      phantommm92
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.05.2010 Posts: 1,464
      imo it's 5%, just because we should only count when bb 3bets, as when sb 3bets, we can'y get 3bet for a second time :D

      now there might be a difference if sb CC and BB squeezes more than 5%
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,332
      96% chance SB will NOT 3bet you
      95% chance BB will NOT 3bet you

      Probability (neither will 3bet) = (0.96 * 0.95) = 0.912

      Probability of getting 3bet is about 8.8%.

      Have to say it's worrying the lack of basic maths understanding in this thread amongst poker players
    • phantommm92
      phantommm92
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.05.2010 Posts: 1,464
      ussualy i count it like weazel said, but somehow this time it looked different to me, hmm brainfart

      EDIT: in HU you just see 1 player, so it's easier :f_cool:
    • TheMoment
      TheMoment
      Silver
      Joined: 16.12.2011 Posts: 229
      cause 5th grade math is too hard for high rollers


      0.05x0.96+0.04x0.95=0.086 (only around)

      2 scenarios, 1Player 3bets and other folds or 2player 3bets and other folds.

      ofcourse someone might 4bet tighter

      8.6%
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      All this shows is how little maths has to do with playing winning poker :)
    • Deadbillis
      Deadbillis
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.08.2011 Posts: 308
      If their 3bet range is so low here I'm raising every time. only getting 3bet >10% of the time so long term +ev.

      Is this correct thinking?
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Originally posted by Deadbillis
      If their 3bet range is so low here I'm raising every time. only getting 3bet >10% of the time so long term +ev.

      Is this correct thinking?
      Not necessarily. Doesn't mean they are folding to steal. They might call a ton and play super aggro postflop.
    • Deadbillis
      Deadbillis
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.08.2011 Posts: 308
      So we need to know their Call a raise % too or we don't have all the info.
    • Jan217
      Jan217
      Gold
      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 626
      Originally posted by Deadbillis
      So we need to know their Call a raise % too or we don't have all the info.
      really all we need is the fold to steal stat
    • TheMoment
      TheMoment
      Silver
      Joined: 16.12.2011 Posts: 229
      and if they call a lot, you can still steal if they fold to cbet a lot
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      The way I worked it.

      SB will always 3bet with a 4% frequency.

      However BB can only 3bet when SB hasnt. So because SB doesnt 3bet 96% of the time. The BB 5% 3bet is actually 4.8% (0.05 x 0.96)

      So we add 4% (times SB 3bets) to 4.8% (times BB can 3bet if he gets the chance) to get 8.8% total chance of being 3bet

      It gets more complicated when we start considering cold 4bets and how SB flatting will increase BB's 3bet etc etc
    • jbpatzer
      jbpatzer
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,955
      You can get all accurate, or you can just go 'Oooo 5% + 4% = 9%' and you're about right. Guess how I do it.