[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 QQ set vs river shove

    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players -

      BTN: $45.44
      SB: $26.77
      BB: $25.52
      Hero (UTG): $26.73
      MP: $24.63
      CO: $25.00

      Pre Flop: ($0.37) Hero is UTG with Q :heart: Q :spade:
      Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds

      Flop: ($1.87) Q :club: T :spade: 9 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.40, BTN calls $1.40

      Turn: ($4.67) 4 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.75, BTN calls $3.75

      River: ($12.17) 6 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $9.50, BTN raises to $39.54, Hero ???


      BTN (583 hands)
      VPIP/PFR/3bet/BTNcallopen 34/15/1/26
      foldtoCbetflop/turn/river 56/25(1/4)/67(2/3)
      AFflop/turn/river 2,2/1,5/7,7
      AFqflop/turn/river 36/29/41
      WtSD/W$SD 24/64


      Another sweet spot, just love them so much... :)
      Preflop/flop/turn standard, river valuebet is standard.
      Is herofolding out of the question vs him? I need 21% to make the call.
      If I'm being optimistic:

      Asztal: Q:club: T:spade: 9:diamond:  4:heart:  6:heart:
             Részesedés   Nyert  Osztozás
      MP2        31.43%  31.43%     0.00% { QhQs }
      BU         68.57%  68.57%     0.00% { QQ, TT-99, KJs, QTs-Q9s, J8s, T9s, 87s, KJo, QTo }

      If I'm being pessimistic (or just realistic?), and he would do this monster line with straights and sets:

      Asztal: Q:club: T:spade: 9:diamond:  4:heart:  6:heart:
             Részesedés   Nyert  Osztozás
      MP2        20.00%  20.00%     0.00% { QhQs }
      BU         80.00%  80.00%     0.00% { TT-99, KJs, J8s, 87s, KJo }

      Or would I say just "f*ck it", and call? :)
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      Since he would also shove there sets I think you can never really fold your top set. You have put in over 60% over your stack, so I think it is easy b/c consider how good pot odds you´re getting

      best regards,