HUD Statistics to assist Push/Fold decisions

    • Calsaj
      Calsaj
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2011 Posts: 22
      Hi, it's become apparent to me that I have some really costly leaks but I'm struggling to identify them.

      The only stats I currently use give no real indication into a players shoving ranges:

      Hands/VPIP/PFR/3BET/AF/Steal/Fold to Steal

      These stats have helped me no end with my early stage game. To give a little background, I started playing again a month ago after taking a break since early 2010, where I was a casual breakeven player with very little knowledge. I returned to find the games a lot tougher and over a small sample size had an ROI of around -9% (2007-2010 I played on UK sites/FullTilt, since March 2012 I've been playing at PS).

      At this point I signed up to this website and purchased HEM. Since then I am 13.9% in Regular $3.50 over about 14,000 hands but -7% in the $3.50 turbos over about 10,000 hands. What confuses me about this is that my EV$ in my winning game is -101.65 but my EV$ in my losing game is +8.5.

      What I have deduced from this, aside from the fact I've run really good in the regular speed games and I'm quoting a small sample size, is that any edge I may have must be in my early stage game and post-flop game given the discrepancy between my Regular/Turbo stats.

      I have run hundreds of thousands of hands on ICM trainer through all the scenarios and my scores fluctuate between 89%-97% which I would assume is a score that isn't too far behind most of the $3.50 regs so I think these leaks are in assigning a Push/Call range to my villains in an in-game scenario.

      Finally to the point, what HUD statistics do you use to help you make decisions once the game reaches the push/fold stage?
  • 3 replies
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Hi, Calsaj!


      And welcome to our community. Solid first post and nice background info. I will try to make it very understandable and short as possible.

      It's hard to analyze every single spot as it matters vs how many players we are shoving, how many people are left, table image-both ours and of the opponents etc.

      As a general rule, if, say, we are siting on the SB, we tend to shove a wider range vs a fishy player(often any 2 cards is good for <10bb eff.), where as if we are facing a reg(s), we have to be shoving tighter range(often nash or close to it) as we expect a competent player to know what we are doing and call us looser. This however depends on how he sees us. If he thinks we are fishy players, his range should also be tighter. This is the most important read I will use when making push/fold decision.

      As for stats- we don't care about postflop AF or 3bet%, cbet% etc as these are all postflop stats that we should not be taking into account as action ends preflop. So I will pay attention to VPIP the most. If we are shoving into a 70 VPIP whale, I won't be so tempted to push any 2 cards as I will vs most fishes as these guys will often call a relatively wide range (as a reg will do), but for a totally different reason.

      Vs someone who has 15 VPIP/3 PFR and is one tabler is our best target. These are all unknown casual players that will have more static range and won't adjust accordingly to the reducing effective stack sizes, so I will push any 2 cards vs them for 10bb or less if action is bvb.

      Vs a reg-12/12 or 14/12 type of stats- I will still go loose, but not as far as any 2 cards.


      When playing the micros, I will also suggest that you deviate from nash even vs regs as most multitablers won't be good enough to play nash as well, so we want to use a different strategy. Just push a wide range in general.

      Previous history also matters and if we've been shoving every hand the last 3 orbit from late position/bvb, you should tend to tighten up a bit as your table image worsens and people will start calling you loose or just spite you off.


      Cheers!
    • Calsaj
      Calsaj
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2011 Posts: 22
      Originally posted by kurrkabin
      Hi, Calsaj!


      And welcome to our community. Solid first post and nice background info. I will try to make it very understandable and short as possible.

      It's hard to analyze every single spot as it matters vs how many players we are shoving, how many people are left, table image-both ours and of the opponents etc.

      As a general rule, if, say, we are siting on the SB, we tend to shove a wider range vs a fishy player(often any 2 cards is good for <10bb eff.), where as if we are facing a reg(s), we have to be shoving tighter range(often nash or close to it) as we expect a competent player to know what we are doing and call us looser. This however depends on how he sees us. If he thinks we are fishy players, his range should also be tighter. This is the most important read I will use when making push/fold decision.

      As for stats- we don't care about postflop AF or 3bet%, cbet% etc as these are all postflop stats that we should not be taking into account as action ends preflop. So I will pay attention to VPIP the most. If we are shoving into a 70 VPIP whale, I won't be so tempted to push any 2 cards as I will vs most fishes as these guys will often call a relatively wide range (as a reg will do), but for a totally different reason.

      Vs someone who has 15 VPIP/3 PFR and is one tabler is our best target. These are all unknown casual players that will have more static range and won't adjust accordingly to the reducing effective stack sizes, so I will push any 2 cards vs them for 10bb or less if action is bvb.

      Vs a reg-12/12 or 14/12 type of stats- I will still go loose, but not as far as any 2 cards.


      When playing the micros, I will also suggest that you deviate from nash even vs regs as most multitablers won't be good enough to play nash as well, so we want to use a different strategy. Just push a wide range in general.

      Previous history also matters and if we've been shoving every hand the last 3 orbit from late position/bvb, you should tend to tighten up a bit as your table image worsens and people will start calling you loose or just spite you off.


      Cheers!
      Thanks for the detailed reply much appreciated!

      I agree I think my main struggle is judging the flow of the game when I'm in a position where I don't need to accumulate chips as quickly and deviate from the Nash/ICM/whatever I'm feeling is correct at the time (Bubbles where fish are forcing a lot of limped pots? I tend to squeeze here quite wide). Also Bubbles where players tend to be folding down, does it become not worth shoving those marginal hands when I have a comfortable stack size given the incompetence of my opponents to maintain the equilibrium?.

      Is there any way to manipulate the VPIP/PFR/3BET statistics in HEM to gather information on what my opponents do <15bb or even once we're at a given blind level? (75/150 is a particular point of interest).
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      No worries, man, you are welcome.


      Go to HUD options-Tourney HUD filters to set your <15bb stats(HEM1). I don't think there is an option for making this based on blind level. As for your other questions, can you, please, post the specific Hand history situation as stack size set up matters a lot and it will be a lot easier to analyze.

      Thanks.