[NL20-NL50] SH50 - TP + OESD vs turnraise

    • chocular77
      chocular77
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $38,9
      Hero:
      $62,4

      0,25/0,5 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.106 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K:club: , Q:club:
      Hero raises to $1,75, 2 folds, SB calls $1,50, BB folds.

      Flop: ($4,00) Q:diamond: , T:heart: , 5:spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $3,5, SB calls $3,50.

      FtoCB = 56%

      Turn: ($11,00) J:diamond: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $9, SB raises to $33,65 (All-In), Hero calls $24,65.

      I don't think he bluffs in this spot but a straight is unlikely. And against anything else i have decent equity.

      River: ($78,30) 4:spade: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $78,30
  • 6 replies
    • Rastlin1
      Rastlin1
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.08.2008 Posts: 189
      hmm not so sure about this one

      If you give him TT,55,QTs+,JTs,T9s,QTo+,JTo in his range you are only a 25% favorite to win. If you throw into that any Ax diamond draws you are 41.56%

      with the pot size and amount you need to call you would need 55% to break even so I think that a fold might be a better option here from such aggression?
    • chocular77
      chocular77
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      Originally posted by Rastlin1
      hmm not so sure about this one

      If you give him TT,55,QTs+,JTs,T9s,QTo+,JTo in his range you are only a 25% favorite to win. If you throw into that any Ax diamond draws you are 41.56%

      with the pot size and amount you need to call you would need 55% to break even so I think that a fold might be a better option here from such aggression?
      I'm not sure who's math is correct but when i use your range i get this equity:
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 66.67% 66.67% 0.00% TT, 55, QTs+, JTs, T9s, QTo+, JTo
      MP3 33.33% 33.33% 0.00% KcQc

      And the actual equity i need at least is:

      to call / pot
      24,65 / 78,3 = 31,5% (rake excluded)
    • Rastlin1
      Rastlin1
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.08.2008 Posts: 189
      I take it all back! :P

      I was wrong on the equity of your hand and you are correct

      but on the break even I think that we are both wrong

      As i see it now on flop;

      1. pot is 11 and you bet 9 bucks making pot 20
      2. villain shoves but your effective stack is 24.65 so now total pot is 69.3
      3. 24.65/69.3 = 35.57%

      so actually its pretty close indeed
    • chocular77
      chocular77
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      You forgot the $9 in his Ship ($9 for my bet + $24,65)

      I just always use the bottom line: "Final Pot: $78,30"

      But yeah it's close and if he got Straights in his range the call gets -EV.
      But how often does he have AK,98. And how often does he call with a gutshot.

      He never does 3B so i guess both are still in his range and this lets my equity drop to 25%

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 74.63% 69.04% 5.59% QQ, TT, 55, AQs+, KQs, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, AQo+, KQo, QTo+, JTo
      MP3 25.37% 19.78% 5.59% KcQc
    • Rastlin1
      Rastlin1
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.08.2008 Posts: 189
      very true thanks for the math lesson :)

      His play still seems very strong here and I would be more inclined to fold but that might be too weak
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello chocular77,

      32% equity is with rake, so if you take rake out it's even more equity needed. And the answer to your question how often does he have 98/AK - he will have them enough to destroy your equity, neither you didn't add some of the hands as JJ which could even be in his range.

      Vs strong range for example:

      Board: Q:diamond: T:heart: 5:spade:  J:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG+1  24.57%  19.16%   5.41% { KcQc }
      UTG+2  75.43%  70.02%   5.41% { QQ-TT, 55, AQs+, KQs, Q9s+, JTs, 98s, AQo+, KQo, QTo+, JTo }

      we don't really get the equity and therefore my plan would be rather just give up the hand. The guy doesn't look like such a player either who goes to showdown like a maniac and only loses them.

      Best Regards.