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River all-in with 2-pairs and better

    • PrzeoRski
      PrzeoRski
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.04.2011 Posts: 18
      Hey,

      Today I found out that sometimes it's better to shove allin on the river with good hand than only giving 2/3 pot etc.

      Allin on the river looks like a bluff.

      What are yours experience at allin vs. 2/3 pots on the river?


      Regards,
      Kamil
  • 1 reply
    • CollinMoshman
      CollinMoshman
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 20.09.2011 Posts: 522
      The EV of a river bet when you're confident you have the best hand, and think it's unlikely you'll face a raise when betting less than all-in, is:

      Probability Villain Calls x Size of your Bet

      Overbetting will often be the highest-EV option, particularly against low-stakes calling stations. E.g. If you think there's a very good chance (but less than 100%) your opponent will call 1/2-pot bet at the river, but only a 50-50 chance he'll call a bet of full-pot, then full-pot is the higher-EV option.