*Originally posted by aciddrop*

EDIT: I just redid my math, and found a mistake. The pot you would have to pay $3.75 to enter is only $11.85, not $12.25. This makes a big difference. Your contribution now would be 31.6% of the total, which means you need more than 8 clean outs to be able to play this. Eight outs is 31.5%, which means how often you will make your hand by the river. Factoring in rake, you therefore lose. So good play.

Note to self. Don't try calculating when you haven't slept for many hours.

The contribution to the correct pot size is 24%, not 31.6%. So, equity wise, the move would be sound. I still think folding is correct, because the play is so marginal, even a small mistake in calculation, and you blow your skinny margin away. It would be very high variance play for little actual return.

Just a couple of things to consider.

1) With 11 outs, our hand here will improve to minimum TPTK by the river almost 42% of the time.

2) Because we discount those outs, only 27% of the time will it be the best hand.

3) If we had nine clean outs here, it would be a no brainer push on the flop first in, because then we have 35% equity. We may take it down without any further action, but if only one opponent calls, we have contributed only 31.6%, which gives us 3%, and if both call, our win is close to 11%.