[NL2-NL10] Nl25, AKo, flop play

    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

      Button ($13.05)
      SB ($4.75)
      BB ($12.95)
      UTG ($18.45)
      UTG+1 ($21.65)
      MP1 ($5.60)
      Hero ($5)
      MP3 ($44.75)
      CO ($26.20)

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A:diamond: , K:heart: . UTG posts a blind of $0.25.
      1 fold, MP1 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, MP3 calls $1.25, CO calls $1.25, 4 folds.

      Flop: ($4.35) T:diamond: , 8:heart: , Q:diamond: (4 players)
      Hero checks, MP3 bets $4.35, CO calls $4.35, Hero folds.

      Turn: ($13.05) 3:diamond: (3 players)
      MP3 checks, CO checks.

      River: ($13.05) 2:diamond: (3 players)
      MP3 checks, CO checks.

      Final Pot: $13.05


      I was against two opponents on the flop and had basically the trash, so I decided to play c/f... ...however after some consideration I realized that I had two overcards, gutshot and a backdoor flush draw which makes altogether more than 10 outs(I don't quite know how much outs can I add for backdoor flush), but even though that all of them are probably not clean I think push could have been profitable here.

      Would you say that this hand was strong enough to push against 2?
  • 10 replies
    • 098799
      098799
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      Joined: 23.07.2007 Posts: 1,245
      Not oop against two. I think you played it correctly.

      And bfd is worth like... 0.5 outs? ;)
    • dallievas
      dallievas
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.11.2007 Posts: 822
      I recently reread PS article about playing draws for sss and want to play many draws :D ,but imho you should consider to push even from basic SSS view because
      your remaining stack:your raise ratio was 3:1,so can go all in with AK,after their bets pot is bigger than your remaining stack so push is ok too.Pot odds on flop when 1 opp bet+call is 3.48:1 for you and you have gutshot+2 oc+backdoor flush draw-combo draw -10-11 outs maybe,so odds 3.5:1.Pretty equal situation with odds 3.4:1 and 3.5:1.I don`t know maybe you can expect higher implied odds.
      Thus to push on flop is not mistake,but of course you can play more cautiously as do I in most of the time :D
      Good luck
    • DeKuip
      DeKuip
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 10,966
      You can't push this flop.
      First of all you're OOP against 2 opponents (as 098799 said).
      Then you've got a gutshot and 2 overcards, which are 9 outs. (and maybe 0.5 out for the backdoor flush).

      The calling range of those 2 callers probably involves a A or a K, so in the end, I think you'll have 7 outs left.

      Only when you clearly have 8+ outs, it's profitable to push the flop if I'm correct, but you don't have so many outs.

      I would have played this the same as you I think.
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      Lets see. You have gutshot, 4 outs, overcards, 6 outs, BDFD to the nuts, 1.5 outs. Lets discount, and say we can count 7 clean outs. All our gutshot are good, BDFD are good, so drop 4.5 outs from the overcards. This is conservative I think.

      You can't open push this flop. Obviously checking is correct. After the bet and call behind, you get the opportunity to play for $12.25, and you need to pay $3.75, which is all you have left. My calculations tell me that that is 23.5% of the total pot you would play for.

      All in on the flop with 7 outs gives you 27.8% equity, so pushing behind here is actually +ev, and that is with a very conservative evaluation of your outs, I think. Give yourself even one more out, and your equity is over 30%.

      What about that?
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Originally posted by aciddrop
      Lets see. You have gutshot, 4 outs, overcards, 6 outs, BDFD to the nuts, 1.5 outs. Lets discount, and say we can count 7 clean outs. All our gutshot are good, BDFD are good, so drop 4.5 outs from the overcards. This is conservative I think.

      You can't open push this flop. Obviously checking is correct. After the bet and call behind, you get the opportunity to play for $12.25, and you need to pay $3.75, which is all you have left. My calculations tell me that that is 23.5% of the total pot you would play for.

      All in on the flop with 7 outs gives you 27.8% equity, so pushing behind here is actually +ev, and that is with a very conservative evaluation of your outs, I think. Give yourself even one more out, and your equity is over 30%.

      What about that?
      Let's see if I understand this correctly...

      1. I have about 7-8 clean outs which is not enough to open push, so check is correct to play here.

      2. The MP3's bet and CO's call gives me enough equity to call with my 7+ outs.

      3. If the CO folded to MP3's bet then I should have folded too, because my pot odds would have been too low.

      ...I hope I am right the way I see it and I'm sorry, but I'm still kinda noob with this equity thing. :) However I really liked this post it's very precise, the problem is just that I have to study more about calculations and equity more, specially if I want to integrate something like that into my play. Maybe it would be a good idea for PS to provide some article about equity and how to use it in practice.
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      I think that what I am saying is correct. It seems it on the math, and yes, if CO folds, you would definitely not have enough equity.

      The trick here is that once you are all in on the flop, nothing else affects your share and the ratio you paid. So counting outs and taking that into account is always necessary. Don't worry, after many (many) hands, you can assess rough outs very quickly, and start to get a feel for textures.

      Equity is just your share of the pot based on the strength of your hand and how often you will make your draws. At least that's how I'd explain it. I have a chart in the back of a Sklansky book I refer to which lists number of outs and the probability of making the draw with two cards to come. When you are all in, that's what you need to know.

      Now lets wait for a judge to assess this.

      EDIT: I just redid my math, and found a mistake. The pot you would have to pay $3.75 to enter is only $11.85, not $12.25. This makes a big difference. Your contribution now would be 31.6% of the total, which means you need more than 8 clean outs to be able to play this. Eight outs is 31.5%, which means how often you will make your hand by the river. Factoring in rake, you therefore lose. So good play.
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
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      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      this is a good thread, and a good fold.
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      Originally posted by aciddrop
      EDIT: I just redid my math, and found a mistake. The pot you would have to pay $3.75 to enter is only $11.85, not $12.25. This makes a big difference. Your contribution now would be 31.6% of the total, which means you need more than 8 clean outs to be able to play this. Eight outs is 31.5%, which means how often you will make your hand by the river. Factoring in rake, you therefore lose. So good play.
      Note to self. Don't try calculating when you haven't slept for many hours.

      The contribution to the correct pot size is 24%, not 31.6%. So, equity wise, the move would be sound. I still think folding is correct, because the play is so marginal, even a small mistake in calculation, and you blow your skinny margin away. It would be very high variance play for little actual return.

      Just a couple of things to consider.

      1) With 11 outs, our hand here will improve to minimum TPTK by the river almost 42% of the time.

      2) Because we discount those outs, only 27% of the time will it be the best hand.

      3) If we had nine clean outs here, it would be a no brainer push on the flop first in, because then we have 35% equity. We may take it down without any further action, but if only one opponent calls, we have contributed only 31.6%, which gives us 3%, and if both call, our win is close to 11%.
    • Berliner1982
      Berliner1982
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      Joined: 12.07.2006 Posts: 5,644
      Without doing the math I like the fold. On such a draw heavy board, MP3 could bet potsize with a lot of hand, from TP over 2 Pair, a monsterdraw (straight and flushdraw) or a Set he wants to protect.
      CO who is calling here, with one player behind him, very often will call a draw here. So I think our Overcards Outs are very often Dead, maybe we can give us 2 Outs for them. For the Gutshot only 3 Outs are clean and one is giving as revearse Outs (a Jack of diamonds).

      So we might have a total of 7 Outs tops and with about 3:1 vor my money its close and marginal and for a beginner it could be better to fold here.
    • xylere
      xylere
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      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      Without doing the math I like push. The texture doesn't provide much of fold equity, but is good one to get a stupid call on this limit. So our equity should be fine here... it won't be very positive in terms of EV, but with every all in we buy SD information + we might have protection in case both calls, having Ahigh backdoor its quite nice.