[NL2-NL10] NL10 Zoom AKs

    • mineriva
      Joined: 30.04.2008 Posts: 913
      Ok here my questions are:
      should i cbet
      should i bet turn
      should i bet river

      I have 32 hands on villian he plays 12/6/1. He has folded 2/4 times to flop cbet and has called 1/1 turn cbet.

      I decided to make a flop cbet because I believed that with the paird board villian cannot call many cbets. (I considered an estimated 65% success rate accounting for 20% jx, 9% for FD, and 6% for PP). Lookning at it again it seems to be waaay off. I now believe it to have an estimated success rate of less than 60% with 8% for trips+, 26% for jx, 12% for draw, 6% PP. Point is that J88 is not as good as J77!. Looking at it now I also dont like the bet size. I under estimated the flop and should have made it just a bit more, Specifically to outprice T9s ect. {Plz not he did not show T9s }

      On the turn I picked up the FD and with the added equity I decided to bet. Looking at it now I still like the bet and the betsize.

      The river blanks. The only question that remains is whether we should/could bluff shove. IMHO the only hands in his range that he might fold is 99 or TT which accounts for just over 10% of his range by the river. Even if we can fold out JT and J9 I dont believe we could ever come to the app 40% fe we need.
      So I believe c/f is the best.

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:

      MP2 (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, K.
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, MP3 calls $0.40, 4 folds, 3 folds, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($0.95) J, 8, 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.50, MP3 calls $0.50.

      Turn: ($1.95) 6 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.00, MP3 calls $1.00.

      River: ($3.95) 9 (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP3 checks.

      Final Pot: $3.95.
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello mineriva,

      As long you went for the CB then obviously we are 2nd barreling there. Only thing what we could change is the sizing of the bets but overall with your stack there is not much to do.

      Best Regards.