VPIP, ROI and EV

    • 107e5
      107e5
      Basic
      Joined: 04.04.2012 Posts: 61
      Hello, my name is Nick and I have recently started playing poker again. I used to play recreationally last year on betfair and made a profit of a bit more than $500 playing $3.30 and $5.50 regular SnG tournaments.


      I started playing again more seriously again. Therefore I invested some money on the new HM2 software as well as trying to improve my game as much as I can.

      I also switched from regular tournaments to turbos and introduced multitabling regularly, usually bettween 4 and 6 tables.


      Even though I feel I have improoved a lot in the last couple of months I feel I can do much better and get even better at Turbos.

      Right now I am playing $1.20 Turbo SnGs regularly in order to get accustome to the changes from regular to turbo before moving to higher stakes. I still manage to get a ROI of 21.3%.

      I have a couple of questions which I couldnt manage to find an answer to so far so I thought to post them here. First of all on my HUD when I play I included the % a player limps but not the VPIP. So I a player limps on the cutoff with a 70% limp rate and I am on the BB I would most definetely push with a wide range. I am not sure whether this is correct or not even though its working so far.

      Secondly, I sometimes blend some $3.30 Turbos SnGs along with my regular $1.20 in my game. I have a negative ROI on those and that is perfectly fine for now but here is the bit that confuses me.

      Even though I show a profit in $1.20 SnGs and a ROI of 21.3 I have a negative $EV of -59.14, and on the $3.30 SnGs I have a negative ROI but a positive $EV of 14.72. It doesnt make any sense to me right now.

      If somebody could clarify and explain these two things it would be great.

      Regards,

      Nick
  • 5 replies
    • evertonroar
      evertonroar
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 737
      I think - your ev shows what your results will approach over a very very large sample. So at the 1.20s you are up, but have been lucky. at the 3.30 you have been unlucky. But without a sample size of 10000+ games you cant really rely on it to much.
    • 107e5
      107e5
      Basic
      Joined: 04.04.2012 Posts: 61
      What I was thinking was that on many of the $3.30 tournaments I was busted while I was dominating the other player i.e AK VS AJ or KK vs JJ, QQ vs KT and so on. So maybe hence the positive EV.


      On the 1.20 SnGs on the other usually there will be a double up early on which usually I will be ahead thus +ve EV but then when the bubble play comes when most action will take place your EV is not always optimal.


      Could this be the case?

      I know that you need a very big sample to be accurate. I read that "After 1,000 games you're 67% likely to be within 5% of your true ROI".

      All the best.
    • evertonroar
      evertonroar
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 737
      yes, if you losing lots of showdowns when you are getting your money in ahead then it stands to reason your EV will be higher than your ROI.
    • 107e5
      107e5
      Basic
      Joined: 04.04.2012 Posts: 61
      What I am mostly concerned is my almost 50% negative $EV in the $1.20 SNGs which I play regularly.

      Could the reason be the one I mentioned above or maybe something else ?

      Or having a negative EV means that I am making wrong plays and eventually I will be facing with a huge downswing?

      Regards,

      107e5
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Whether you are getting your money in ahead or behind is almost irrelevant. Concentrate on making good decisions. Some good decisions mean getting your money in behind. Some mean getting your money in ahead. When you make the right decisions, your results and your EV line will tend to increase, but neither is guaranteed in the short run. The EV line converges to the long run average slightly faster than your results do.