# JJ, QQ AK running into 80% Dog

• Bronze
Joined: 24.08.2011
Anyone know the odds on being a >20% dog on preflop showdown when holding JJ,QQ or AK?

Only a small database Playing SnGs and had 14 of these out of 35 when at ICM.
• 2 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 09.01.2009
This should help: Strategy: Probabilities in Texas Hold'em

2nd and 3rd tables will answer your question about pocket pairs. For AK you would need to do the math on your own. The formula would be:

1 - ( 1 - "% of hands that have >80% equity vs you" ) ^ "number of people behind you" = "Probability that you will run into a hand"

To show you an example:

"% of hands that have >80% equity vs you" - we have AK so there's only AA which has >80% of equity vs us and that is 3 combos out of 1,225 (not out of 1,326 cause we already have two cards) or 0.245% of hands.

"number of people behind you" - let's say we're on BU, so it's gonna be 2.

1 - ( 1 - 0.00245 ) ^ 2 = 1 - 0.99755 ^ 2 = 1 - 0.9951 = 0.0049 = 0.49%

Note that just multiplying amount of hands(0.245% as in the example) by number of people behind will not work. This time it would be correct only because the chance of running into AA is really low.