JJ, QQ AK running into 80% Dog

  • 2 replies
    • Bigniux
      Joined: 09.01.2009 Posts: 2,098
      This should help: Strategy: Probabilities in Texas Hold'em

      2nd and 3rd tables will answer your question about pocket pairs. For AK you would need to do the math on your own. The formula would be:

      1 - ( 1 - "% of hands that have >80% equity vs you" ) ^ "number of people behind you" = "Probability that you will run into a hand"

      To show you an example:

      "% of hands that have >80% equity vs you" - we have AK so there's only AA which has >80% of equity vs us and that is 3 combos out of 1,225 (not out of 1,326 cause we already have two cards) or 0.245% of hands.

      "number of people behind you" - let's say we're on BU, so it's gonna be 2.

      1 - ( 1 - 0.00245 ) ^ 2 = 1 - 0.99755 ^ 2 = 1 - 0.9951 = 0.0049 = 0.49%

      Note that just multiplying amount of hands(0.245% as in the example) by number of people behind will not work. This time it would be correct only because the chance of running into AA is really low.

      Hope this answers your question :) If something is not clear, don't hesitate to ask.
    • Deadbillis
      Joined: 24.08.2011 Posts: 308
      Cheers Big.

      Was feeling sorry for myself and just needed to get it out my system on Downswing reports!

      Looked back over my HEM2 and coolers have been very standard in the long run! Just seemed to hit a lot in one go but that's the game.

      Needed to get the negativity out of my system before I do any more grinding. Futunatly I'm on double shifts for the next 10 days so will not be able to play.

      Just gonna watch vids and read strat.