[NL2-NL10] NL10 ATs 3bet pot NFD

    • jozata
      jozata
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.07.2008 Posts: 646
      Pacific, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players

      CO: $6.95 (69.5 bb)
      BTN: $14.30 (143 bb)
      Hero (SB): $10.05 (100.5 bb)
      BB: $4.15 (41.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A T
      CO folds, BTN raises to $0.35, Hero raises to $1.40, BB folds, BTN calls $1.05

      Flop: ($2.90) 7 7 J (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.60, BTN raises to $7.70, Hero raises to $8.65 and is all-in, BTN calls $0.95

      Turn: ($20.20) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($20.20) 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Villain VPIP/PFR/AF/F3b/WSD/Hands
      20/11/1,8/0/33/111
      Villain hasnt folded to 3bets in 111 hands but I still prefer 3betting ATs from SB. On the flop if I shove over his raise I would need 35% equity which should be good if I rely on the flush. Is it still ok to go broke here? What do you think of c/r flop?
  • 3 replies
    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,176
      How many times has villain reacted to 3bets?

      I know you say hes folded 0times, but 0 out of how many? 0/x
    • jozata
      jozata
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.07.2008 Posts: 646
      0/3 111 hands
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello jozata,

      Preflop: If he doesn't fold to 3bets at all then I don't like the 3bet in first place while he even has such a high WTSD. Rather just flat it and play postflop while keeping his weaker hands in the play and might exploit him postflop.

      As played
      Postflop: Check/Raising wouldn't really make sense, rather CB yourself. Cause you can't really represent much with the Check/Raise and I doubt that he is ever folding more hands if we do CB. Neither he doesn't seem to be that aggressive.

      About Bet/Shove is the practical case that we have to consider his range and what kind of range do we put him on. :) Most likely myself I would just Bet/Fold it:

      Board: 7:diamond: 7:club: J:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    63.71%  63.56%   0.16% { TT+, AJs, A7s, KJs, QJs, JTs, 76s, AJo }
      UTG+1  36.29%  36.13%   0.16% { AdTd }

      that's even against very wide range and including all Jx hands. We would need ~37% equity with rake excluded and it would be practically break-even. So not really a huge +EV spot and rather just flipping.

      Best Regards.