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18.04.2012, 16:03
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This post has been edited 2 time(s), it was last edited by conall88: 18.04.2012 16:05.
the kelly criterion is a bit too aggressive unless you are a proven winner at the stake you intend to play imo. The formula relies on you being very certain that it is a reflection of your winrate, and of course you need big sample sizes for that, which most people won't have if they are considering a new BRM anyway. The kelly criterion as you mention it still has a significant risk of ruin. I notice some people quote it at between 10-20% depending on what format you play.
half-kelly BRM is probably the way to go if you are into aggressive BRM imo.
A half-kelly means double the BI that the kelly formula recommends. so if kelly tells 13BI, playing with half kelly means playing with 26BI.
I think the best idea of all is to use a variance calculator, and then input your winrate over a reasonable sample, after deducting 2% so as to be pessimistic.
