[NL2-NL10] NL2 zoom AKs. Very marginal call turn?

    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      Button ($4.14)
      SB ($2.05)
      Hero (BB) ($4.13)
      UTG ($4.62)
      UTG+1 ($1.88)
      MP1 ($2.62)
      MP2 ($1.65)
      MP3 ($1)
      CO ($2)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A
      UTG bets $0.06, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.06, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.04

      Flop: ($0.19) Q, J, 5 (3 players)
      Hero checks, UTG bets $0.10, MP2 calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10

      Turn: ($0.49) 9 (3 players)
      Hero checks, UTG bets $0.35, MP2 raises to $0.70, Hero calls $0.70, UTG calls $0.35

      River: ($2.59) A (3 players)
      Hero checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets $0.79 (All-In), Hero folds, UTG calls $0.79

      Total pot: $4.17 | Rake: $0.15

      Shortstack is 13/9 on 81 hands.
      Fish is 57/43 but I only have 20 hands on him.

      Flop I saw two opponents so I called for better implieds.

      So I'm reading into the implieds of hitting here of course. I have to hit a T or any Diamond that doesn't pair the board to win. I feel like this is very marginal because I'm not guaranteed to get the fishes stack if a Diamond comes.

      I feel the fish is calling every time I call on turn. this makes the pot on turn bigger so I'm effectively putting $0.7 into into $1.89.
      If I hit and I only get the shorties stack I would be winning $2.68 for my $0.7 call when I hit so I'd need 26% pot chance of hitting my hand and this is assuming he brokes every time.

      If he only has sets here, I have just 22%..... so wondering if me maybe not getting payed off by the fish on any diamond would make this call -ev.

      If the fish is able to call on Diamonds as well as the T, I should be able to make this call nice and +ev.

      Slight problem is, If I do hit I'm not sure how to extract the most value. If I shove the villain may even want to fold some two-pairs? probably not bottom set though.

      Anyway, not sure If I'll get payed enough for this call to make it good or just marginal spot that could be avoided.
  • 2 replies
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello DaPhunk,

      Flop: Most likely vs the weak CB size and also weak MP2 flat-call I might even Check/Raise it. Obviously taking the odds ain't wrong cause we are definitely getting the odds to draw.

      As played
      Turn: Unfortunately we don't have so good odds anymore. Cause you are in sandwich position and another guy to act who could easily just ship it. I would just fold it here. :(

      Best Regards.
    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      good point, i based my call on the fish always calling and never folding/shoving. It felt like a lot of a stretch to call :(