[NL20-NL50] NL20 TTP on horrible river!

    • Rogbey
      Joined: 25.01.2012 Posts: 50
      Villain is playing 35/18 over 400 hands, total AF is 1 but river AF is 3.3. I only called when I saw his river stat, I feel he can do this with worse 2 pairs or should I fold and wait for a better spot?

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($21.74)
      BB ($26.85)
      UTG ($7)
      UTG+1 ($25.10)
      CO ($26.09)
      Hero ($20)

      Dealt to Hero Q:heart: A:club:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $0.60, Hero raises to $1.80, fold, fold, CO calls $1.20

      FLOP ($3.90) 4:club: A:spade: Q:spade:

      CO checks, Hero bets $2, CO calls $2

      TURN ($7.90) 4:club: A:spade: Q:spade: J:heart:

      CO checks, Hero bets $4.40, CO calls $4.40

      RIVER ($16.70) 4:club: A:spade: Q:spade: J:heart: 8:spade:

      CO bets $17.89 (AI), Hero calls $11.80 (AI)

      CO shows 6:spade: 5:spade:
      (Pre 42%, Flop 35.9%, Turn 20.5%)

      Hero shows Q:heart: A:club:
      (Pre 58%, Flop 64.1%, Turn 79.5%)

      CO wins $38.29
  • 3 replies
    • maheepsangari
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,161
      I think the flop C-Bet was rather weak and should be around $3 for protection against draws. Same goes for the turn. You bet almost half the pot twice on a draw heavy board and didn't protect your hand.

      River AF over 400 hands I think isn't big enough a sample.

      On the river if he's doing that its a strong made hand most of the times and I wouldn't call it a bluff since so many draws complete on the river. I think its very difficult to bluff on this board on the river and you should have folded the river.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Rogbey,

      Most likely I'd Bet the flop bigger and of course then also the turn. You are giving very good odds for a Call there.

      As played the river is rather a fold, especially when a FD completes, I wouldn't see him doing that with bluffs nor worse hands.

      Best Regards.
    • Rogbey
      Joined: 25.01.2012 Posts: 50
      Yeah looking back I played it quite bad. I'll know next time :D Thanks