[NL2-NL10] nl4 set on wet board

    • gnawhalak
      Joined: 20.06.2010 Posts: 161
      PartyGaming - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BTN: $0.92
      SB: $4.03
      BB: $4.00
      Hero (UTG): $6.02
      MP: $4.60
      CO: $18.34

      SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

      Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has J:spade: J:heart:

      Hero raises to $0.16, MP calls $0.16, fold, fold, fold, fold

      Flop: ($0.38, 2 players) J:diamond: 9:diamond: T:heart:
      Hero bets $0.28, MP raises to $0.90, Hero raises to $2.30, MP raises to $4.44 and is all-in, Hero calls $2.14

      Turn: ($9.26, 2 players) 7:club:

      River: ($9.26, 2 players) 6:club:

      b]Hero[/b] shows J:spade: J:heart: (Three of a Kind, Jacks) (PreFlop 81%, Flop 75%, Turn 24%)
      MP shows 8:spade: 9:spade: (Straight, Jack High) (PreFlop 19%, Flop 25%, Turn 76%)
      MP wins $8.80

      was my choice to play for stacks on the flop ok?

      i can't seem to fold my hand coz he could have a lot of possible worse hand to call me.

      lower sets. nut flush draw. combo draws. but i did consider he had KQ
  • 4 replies
    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 4,956
      Without stats its hard to say, if he calls with 78s and KQ. Also AJ might be in his range, maybe JTs. 99, TT. And if he is fish, there is tons of other hands. So I think its ok to stack off there. If he has 78s in his range, then he should have JTs as well.

      he can stack off with combo draws also.

      And I would suggest not post result.
    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,850
      i ship this all the time.
      soooo many worse hands, you have top set and even if you are against straight you have 7 outs, like if you shipped a draw. vs range though you probably are reasonably ahead enough

      vs unknown i expect something like

      Board: J:diamond: 9:diamond: T:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    53.68%  52.44%   1.23% { JhJs }
      MP3    46.32%  45.09%   1.23% { TT-99, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 87s, AsJs, KQo }

      no 98 because i just think it was massively overplayed. this kind of villain probably could have

      Board: J:diamond: 9:diamond: T:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    66.27%  64.77%   1.50% { JhJs }
      MP3    33.73%  32.23%   1.50% { TT-99, AsAc, AJs, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 7d6d, 6d5d, 5d4d, KQo, QJo, JTo, T9o }

      then you are far ahead.
    • gnawhalak
      Joined: 20.06.2010 Posts: 161
      would you still stack off if you made second/third set like you had 99 or TT?
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello gnawhalak,

      Bet the flop bigger and 3bet-get it in. :) Super-easy spot while the guy could have worse sets/2pairs/pair+draw or whatsoever.

      Best Regards.