[NL2-NL10] NL10:SH:KK tough

    • Avatars91
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      IPoker Network $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1742330
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      SB: $8.88 - VPIP: 32, PFR: 13, 3B: 6, AF: 2.0, Hands: 82
      BB: $9.80 - VPIP: 34, PFR: 13, 3B: 3, AF: 1.5, WTS: 13, Hands: 91
      UTG: $16.18 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 12, 3B: 0, AF: 13.0, Hands: 114
      MP: $10.00 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 7, AF: 5.6, Hands: 352
      Hero (CO): $13.06 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 8, AF: 4.8, Hands: 71890
      BTN: $9.95 - VPIP: 32, PFR: 13, 3B: 6, AF: 2.0, Hands: 82

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with K :diamond: K :club:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.35, 2 folds, BB calls $0.25

      Flop: ($0.75) 8 :club: 7 :spade: J :club: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, BB raises to $1.20, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $1.80

      Turn: ($6.75) J :heart: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($6.75) Q :diamond: (2 players)
      BB bets $6.45, Hero folds

      Somewhere halfway in the hand I had the feeling I had messed it up.

      The flop already made me feel not too comfortable. I do not want to fold and calling ignores protection. I raise without really being sure if villain can call/push with a FD or a weaker pair. On the turn I had the feeling that no weaker hand is calling and Jx beats me now as well so I decided to check for pot control and maybe bluff induce. On the river, as played, I cannot call in my opinion since now even QQ beats me and he pushes pot-size.

      All in all – the biggest problem for me in this hand is to determine villain's potential ranges postflop according to his play.
  • 4 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343

      I think he has a lot of tp hands, but he can also have some draws and better hand. If you want to 3-bet and play stacks then it is fine, but since you´re ip you can always just call to see what he does on the turn and for example raise or shove on blank turns

      If you consider he is defending 35% of times, then you´re great favorite on the flop:

      board: Jc8c7s
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      KK 74.15% 1,558,813 27,365
      35% 25.85% 534,402 27,365

      and your equity doesn´t drop that much on the turn:

      board: Jc8c7sJ
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      KK 77.26% 206,628 792
      35% 22.74% 60,540 792

      so you can always shove turn and expect still be ahead enough times to make it profitable. On the river it is close: folding is always safer option, but if players would bluff too often then you can also call.

      best regards,
    • Avatars91
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      When I said that I have difficulty determining villains ranges, I actually meant the ranges of his postflop lines e.i. what would he check/minraise/call with? On such a board? Would he ever do it with a made hand on this board? Does he not have a draw in most cases? If we assume that he does not have TP, 2pair or a set there (and I really am starting to think that his range indeed consists more of draws than of made hands) then a bet on the turn is a must.

      Do you think that villain ever uses this line with a made hand on such a draw heavy board?
    • FlashDavin
      Joined: 25.10.2011 Posts: 421
      I feel like he is always holding some sort of monster draw here like 9cTc or top pair.

      Fish like to minraise their top pair back to you. I think the river is a fold as both hands he was holding got there (Jx, or OESD) especially to such a large bet. I might call a 1/2 size pot bet for information as well as we can be ahead of some PP or missed flush draw.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      Flop: Not a huge fan of 3betting in first place here on such a board where you could easily be against a very strong hand. And by the way T:c9 makes a straight on this flop. :P If you do 3bet -> then you should definitely do it bigger, you giving away way too good odds.

      As played
      Turn: Rather just Bet like 1/2 pot size to bet it for protection and avoid him bluffing the river. :) Might also even get called from worse PPs.

      As played
      River: Not much to do.

      Do you think that villain ever uses this line with a made hand on such a draw heavy board?

      Could be, he doesn't seem to be really a thinking player with his stats. :D Could as well be draws or whatsoever.

      Best Regards.