[NL2-NL10] Q9s 042712

    • nipbourne
      nipbourne
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,597
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      8 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($11.35)
      UTG+1 ($10)
      MP1 ($2.30)
      MP2 ($6.72)
      Hero (CO) ($10)
      BTN ($9.40)
      SB ($9.36)
      BB ($10)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 8 players) Hero is CO 9:club: Q:club:
      4 folds, Hero raises to $0.35, BTN calls $0.35, 2 folds

      Flop: A:heart: 7:club: 10:spade: ($0.85, 2 players)
      Hero bets $0.54, BTN calls $0.54
      would you CB here?i think his range is wide,so i have FE and some backdoors

      Turn: 10:club: ($1.93, 2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

      River: 2:club: ($2.73, 2 players)
      Hero bets $2.35
      87/2/3.5af/46ftcb/57h/16wtsd/43w$sd
  • 14 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello nipbourne,

      Flop: Usually against a fish most likely I wouldn't cause I rarely expect to see much fold equity. :D They like to play the Ax hands. :)

      As played
      Turn: Rather pick the bet size yourself and make it like 1/2 pot size than let him Bet big which you wont be able to Call.

      As played
      River: Not much to comment.

      Best Regards.
    • nipbourne
      nipbourne
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,597
      Flop: Usually against a fish most likely I wouldn't cause I rarely expect to see much fold equity. They like to play the Ax hands.

      if the flop is KT7,would you CB?
    • mrbeer9999
      mrbeer9999
      Basic
      Joined: 11.12.2010 Posts: 182
      Pre: Fine obviously.

      Flop: His VPIP is 87%? I think a CB is mandatory here on this dry, A-high board. While this clown obviously calls with any Ace, this is only 15% of hands so he usually does not have an Ace.

      Turn: I don't mind barrelling here with the extra equity we picked up with that club but against this kind of station we don't have much fold equity and little chance of hitting our flush OTR. I prefer to check and call any smallish bet.

      River: Fine. I'm going to tank like a mofo if he shoves though...actually I probably fold if he shoves.

      All in all I think I play this the same.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by nipbourne
      Flop: Usually against a fish most likely I wouldn't cause I rarely expect to see much fold equity. They like to play the Ax hands.

      if the flop is KT7,would you CB?
      Yeah, then it's even better for us cause then we would also have a GS and still the backdoor FD and he doesn't have that many Kx hands.
    • mrbeer9999
      mrbeer9999
      Basic
      Joined: 11.12.2010 Posts: 182
      Originally posted by verizYeah, then it's even better for us cause then we would also have a GS and still the backdoor FD and he doesn't have that many Kx hands.
      At 87% I think he probably includes K2o in his calling range.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by mrbeer9999
      Originally posted by verizYeah, then it's even better for us cause then we would also have a GS and still the backdoor FD and he doesn't have that many Kx hands.
      At 87% I think he probably includes K2o in his calling range.
      Not the biggest sample to prove that nor doesn't make sense ever to CB vs that kind of guy cause you will rarely have any fold equity nor you ain't doing it for value.
    • mrbeer9999
      mrbeer9999
      Basic
      Joined: 11.12.2010 Posts: 182
      Originally posted by veriz
      Not the biggest sample to prove that nor doesn't make sense ever to CB vs that kind of guy cause you will rarely have any fold equity nor you ain't doing it for value.
      Well, we can't prove it but 87% over 57 hands is conclusive that he's calling with just about everything. It's pretty reasonable to assume any King is in there.

      Also, c-betting here is fine, if he's folding 46% and we bet $0.54 to win $0.85 it's clearly +EV to bet...additionally this board is bone dry so he folds more than his usual 46%.

      EDIT

      Also, if we have no fold equity, then how can you justify betting the turn? We hit our flush maybe 20% of the time.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      a) We do it on AT7

      Board: A:heart: 7:club: T:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    41.85%  39.98%   1.87% { Qc9c }
      UTG+1  58.15%  56.28%   1.87% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 95o+, 84o+, 74o+, 64o+, 54o }

      b) We do it on KT7

      Board: K:heart: 7:club: T:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    50.09%  48.37%   1.73% { Qc9c }
      UTG+1  49.91%  48.18%   1.73% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 95o+, 84o+, 74o+, 64o+, 54o }


      Where we could even do it for value and a lot of 2nd barreling cards for us.

      Also, c-betting here is fine, if he's folding 46% and we bet $0.54 to win $0.85 it's clearly +EV to bet...additionally this board is bone dry so he folds more than his usual 46%.

      Once again, no sample at all to take into account fold to CB. Maybe it was just 2-3cases.

      Also, if we have no fold equity, then how can you justify betting the turn? We hit our flush maybe 20% of the time.

      Cause we gain extra equity + we have also fold equity and we avoiding him betting very big where we can't Call his Bet. ;)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Oh and he continues ~70% of the range I would assume where I discounted like non-made hands which is like 56.4% in total but he still continues couple of them.

      But if we doing such a CB we would need ~39% fold equity vs his continue range we don't get it = -EV. Your arguments are wrong.
    • mrbeer9999
      mrbeer9999
      Basic
      Joined: 11.12.2010 Posts: 182
      a) I like your equity calc and agree we have more equity with K instead of A, I guess this is due to our GS draw.

      b) We can't get 46% with 2 - 3 cases. Over this sample size our friend has seen nearly 50 flops, so he's faced a number of c-bets in there.

      c) Agree with extra equity, I also agree with effectively blocking him (which is another reason to c-bet IMO)...in fact I also agree with F/E argument but given you said he didn't have any now I'm confused ?( . ;)

      Look, any arguments for betting the turn involve F/E to some extent. Either we have F/E or we don't. F/E applies to the flop as well as the turn and without knowing what the turn card is we have to be happy if we can take it down OTF.

      Meagre though our sample size we do know he calls pre with anything and we know he can fold flops, agreed it would be nice to get a bigger sample but at least we know he can fold.

      We also have a flop that is very dry, it's less likely to connect with his ridiculous range than just about anything else. Barring a flop that directly helps us this is the best situation ever to fire a c-bet.
    • mrbeer9999
      mrbeer9999
      Basic
      Joined: 11.12.2010 Posts: 182
      Even if he continues with any Ace, any Ten, any Seven, any two broadway and any pocket pair, we are still marginally on the plus side of breakeven. So I think a c-bet is fine given he probably folds some of that.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by mrbeer9999
      Even if he continues with any Ace, any Ten, any Seven, any two broadway and any pocket pair, we are still marginally on the plus side of breakeven. So I think a c-bet is fine given he probably folds some of that.
      I pointed out my calculations. :) If you think otherwise then do it.
    • mrbeer9999
      mrbeer9999
      Basic
      Joined: 11.12.2010 Posts: 182
      Originally posted by verizI pointed out my calculations. :) If you think otherwise then do it.
      I think we should agree to disagree on this. Thank you for the discussion.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by mrbeer9999
      Originally posted by verizI pointed out my calculations. :) If you think otherwise then do it.
      I think we should agree to disagree on this. Thank you for the discussion.
      You are welcome.