[NL20-NL50] [sh] NL 25 zoom - flush vs river donk

    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players -

      Hero (BTN): $37.27 -
      SB: $41.01 - VPIP: 36, PFR: 27, 3B: 14, AF: 1.0, Hands: 11
      BB: $37.98 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 25, 3B: 17, AF: 0.0, Hands: 16
      UTG: $25.25 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 15, 3B: 8, AF: 2.0, Hands: 95
      MP: $19.73 - VPIP: 75, PFR: 50, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 4
      CO: $27.11 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 14, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 36

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with T :diamond: Q :diamond:
      UTG raises to $0.62, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.62, 2 folds

      Flop: ($1.59) J :diamond: 6 :heart: 5 :diamond: (2 players)
      UTG bets $1.06, Hero raises to $3.50, UTG calls $2.44

      Turn: ($8.59) K :heart: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $5.50, UTG calls $5.50

      River: ($19.59) 7 :diamond: (2 players)
      UTG bets $7.40, Hero calls $7.40

      On the river I think his donk is going to be very often a flush, I don't really see him playing like that any other hand. IF my assumption is correct then 3betting is not good as he can have some A :diamond: x :diamond: hands(discount them because I 'd expect him to 3bet them some % of the time) and K :diamond: x :diamond: . Lower flushes would be 8 :diamond: 9 :diamond: ,8 :diamond: 6 :diamond: ,6 :diamond: 4 :diamond: , hands that I don't know how often he opens them UTG.

      IF I would know that he always 3bets fd + overcard --> raise AI
      If he never 3bets fd+overcard --> fold (GEEZ???)
      If I don't know how he plays--> calling is best?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello DeMarcohsp,

      Nah, I like your thoughts here and I wouldn't assume either that rather a tighter opponent would even open suited connectors from UTG. :) Nice hand! He ain't going to pay you anyways with worse hands if you raise there. Plus we are also a bit deeper.

      Best Regards.