[NL2-NL10] 10NL – BB vs. CO – AKo faced raise to CB on TT4hh

    • MonkySandwich
      Joined: 18.02.2012 Posts: 156
      Hands: 85
      Steal: 30%
      fold to resteal: 70% (I guess, that seems to be the average on 10NL SH)
      AFq/AF: 55/3
      f-CB: 33

      Villain seems quite agressive and not willing to give up on flops quite easily. OTF he is very aggressive, but the seems quite passive OTT.

      How would villain see me? Well, I've been quite loose (32/28) and verry aggressive (60/4) the hands he saw from me. I re-stealed from the BB twice before and Cbet the flop about 85%.

      It's quite hard to hit this flop, but just have A-hi and two overcards, no backdoors.

      Is a shove here too agressive?

      If I would push here, I would risk $7,65 to win $6,45. To be break even, villain has to fold 7,65/(7,65+6,45)=55%

      Against Tx I am dead, but there are not that many Tx in his range, right?
      Against QQ, JJ and 99 I have 24% equity
      Against JJ+ and 99 I have 20% equity, but I think he would 4bet his KK and AA
      Against a FLD I have about 50% equity

      OK, well, If I put villain on a range, he has a range of about 9% (Steal * (100% – fold to resteal)). That's 88+,A9s+,KQs,AJo+,KQo. If villain raises all of them, and would call a push OTF it would be a coin flip (50,7% equity in my favour).

      Therefor my EV for pushing is:
      0,50 * (1,35 + 2,05 + 9 – 0,90 (rake)) – 0,50 * 7,65 = $1,92

      My Break Even point:
      0,40 * (1,35 + 2,05 + 9 – 0,90 (rake)) – 0,60 * 7,65 = $0.01
      This is when villains range here is 88+,A9s+,AQo+. Either he wouldn't have raised OTF with AJo and KQ, wich means the push will be BE.
      Or he would fold those hands aigainst my shove and fold, wich is EV+ for me.

      Lol, I quess I figured the answes myself, but I would love to read your thoughts too :D

      iPoker - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 6 players

      SB: $10.00
      Hero (BB): $12.08
      UTG: $11.61
      MP: $13.56
      CO: $10.00
      BTN: $10.20

      SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has K:club: A:spade:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $0.30, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.00, CO calls $0.70

      Flop: ($2.05, 2 players) T:club: 4:heart: T:heart:
      Hero bets $1.35, CO raises to $3.05, fold

      CO wins $4.44
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello MonkySandwich,

      As long you have only 85 hands on him you can never do such equity calculations cause you can never be sure what kind of range he steals, what kind of range he defends, how often he folds to 3bet just cause you maybe had only 1-3 situations at that's it.

      I do agree that he doesn't have many Tx hands in his range but without any specific information I wouldn't continue either on the flop but rather just leaving the pot alone, especially when we are vs a guy on whom we just have 85 hands -> unknown.

      So only thing we could count here are the dynamics and how we saw him playing on the table.

      Best Regards.