Your results are an unbiased indicator of your long run average.
Your luck-adjusted results (red line) are also an unbiased indicator of your long run average (barring some minor issues which are assumed to be negligible).
However, the interaction between these statistics is quite complicated. When you have enough luck to win, your luck-adjusted results may also be above their long run average. When you have bad luck and lose, your luck-adjusted results may tend to be below your long run average.
Imagine that you are playing a heads-up tournament with 8 players, and you outclass your opponents so much that you always get your money in as a 60-40 favorite. So, you win the tournament 60%^3 = 21.6% of the time, far above the par of 1/8 = 12.5%. What is the luck-adjusted result if you get knocked out in the first round? The luck adjustment only sees your advantage in the first round, so it says you expect to win 60%*25% equity for making it to the second round = 15% of tournaments, lower than your long run average of 21.6%. The luck adjustment doesn't see that your bad luck in the first round cost you the opportunity to have a skill advantage in later rounds. In case you win the tournament, the luck adjustment was that you were lucky by 10%, 20%, and 40%, so it says you should win 30% of the time, greater than your long run average of 21.6%. When you win the first coin-flip, your tournament equity increased from 15% to 25%, so the luck-adjustment sees 10% luck. However, you will win the tournament 36% of the time due to your skill, so you really had 36-21.6 = 14.4% luck.
If you are mathematically inclined, that might be fascinating, but what if you just want to focus on poker? Your luck-adjusted results in a sample tend to be biased in the direction of your results. Don't pat yourself on the back too much when you have a hot streak, and the luck-adjusted results say you deserved most of it. Don't kick yourself too much when the luck-adjusted results say you deserve to lose a lot on a bad day.
