Red line question

    • nokifpp
      nokifpp
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.02.2012 Posts: 123
      Hello fellow strategists!

      Ive been playing 6max sitngoes for the past two months. I am unsure if this is the right place to post this but I would really want to clear some things out.
      As I played arount 700 -800 or these tournaments I noticed some of the following:

      - When I play really good ( winnings wise ) my red line goes down
      - when I dopnt play so good winnings wise my red line goes up

      Now i would like to mention that I have read some articles about +- EV but I just dont see myself calculating every single hand I play.

      Can someone pleas explain a few things about this as I would really like to see the red line going up in HM2.

      Regards,

      Urban
  • 5 replies
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,923
      Just noting I've moved this thread to the correct board.

      Regards,
      Gary
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Hello, fellow nokifpp!

      You shouldn't be results oriented and make conclusions such as- I make money, but my EV goes down and when I my EV goes up- I lose money. It's just variance. 700-800 games is really almost no sample. Especially on 6-handed games, where variance can be bigger due to top-heavy pay out structure. You main goal is always to maintain a good game, get yourself in + EV spots and sooner or later green and red line will meet!

      I will suggest that everytime you are unsure about a hand(whether you took the most + EV decision), just post it in our hand evaluation forums. It's really a big help and you can get professional opinion/advices for the line that you've taken. Here's a link: <5$ Evaluations, 5-21$ Evaluations


      Cheers!
    • nokifpp
      nokifpp
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.02.2012 Posts: 123
      Thank you so much guys, I will try to upload some hands later today.
      Thank you for moving my thread :)
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      You are welcome! If you have any probs regarding hand posting, feel free to ask! In the meantime: Click


      Cheers!
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Your results are an unbiased indicator of your long run average.

      Your luck-adjusted results (red line) are also an unbiased indicator of your long run average (barring some minor issues which are assumed to be negligible).

      However, the interaction between these statistics is quite complicated. When you have enough luck to win, your luck-adjusted results may also be above their long run average. When you have bad luck and lose, your luck-adjusted results may tend to be below your long run average.

      Imagine that you are playing a heads-up tournament with 8 players, and you outclass your opponents so much that you always get your money in as a 60-40 favorite. So, you win the tournament 60%^3 = 21.6% of the time, far above the par of 1/8 = 12.5%. What is the luck-adjusted result if you get knocked out in the first round? The luck adjustment only sees your advantage in the first round, so it says you expect to win 60%*25% equity for making it to the second round = 15% of tournaments, lower than your long run average of 21.6%. The luck adjustment doesn't see that your bad luck in the first round cost you the opportunity to have a skill advantage in later rounds. In case you win the tournament, the luck adjustment was that you were lucky by 10%, 20%, and 40%, so it says you should win 30% of the time, greater than your long run average of 21.6%. When you win the first coin-flip, your tournament equity increased from 15% to 25%, so the luck-adjustment sees 10% luck. However, you will win the tournament 36% of the time due to your skill, so you really had 36-21.6 = 14.4% luck.

      If you are mathematically inclined, that might be fascinating, but what if you just want to focus on poker? Your luck-adjusted results in a sample tend to be biased in the direction of your results. Don't pat yourself on the back too much when you have a hot streak, and the luck-adjusted results say you deserved most of it. Don't kick yourself too much when the luck-adjusted results say you deserve to lose a lot on a bad day.