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[NL2-NL10] pair + FD on the flop

    • RobertDaPro
      Joined: 24.06.2011 Posts: 410
      PokerStars - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      Hero (LP): $10.00
      CO: $4.00
      BTN: $4.00
      SB: $6.42
      BB: $10.25
      UTG: $10.00
      UTG+1: $6.77
      MP: $10.45
      MP+1: $8.31

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 9:heart: 8:heart:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.20, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.20, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.10

      Flop: ($0.65, 3 players) K:heart: 8:spade: 7:heart:
      BB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.10, Hero raises to $0.30, BB raises to $1.55, fold, Hero raises to $9.80 and is all-in, BB calls $8.25

      Turn: ($20.35, 2 players) 5:diamond:

      River: ($20.35, 2 players) 7:diamond:

      BB shows 8:club: K:diamond: (Two Pair, Kings and Eights) (Pre 65%, Flop 63%, Turn 73%)
      Hero mucks 9:heart: 8:heart: (Two Pair, Eights and Sevens) (Pre 35%, Flop 37%, Turn 27%)
      BB wins $19.43

      Here i am surprised to see that was willing to go broke with second pair + FD. So i must ask that what you think of that? Can not see stats anymore of vlillian that why did i deside to do that. I am sure this was mistake, but i might aswell get this reminded to me :)
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello RobertDaPro,

      What I'd do myself is that I'd raise a bit bigger if I am raising ~$0,60 and afterwards we would need ~48% equity to make it even a profitable shove and most likely we are against strong hands mainly here like 2pairs+:

      Board: K:heart: 8:spade: 7:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    42.04%  41.36%   0.68% { 9h8h }
      UTG+1  57.96%  57.27%   0.68% { 88-77, K8s-K7s, 87s, K8o-K7o, 87o }

      which wouldn't really give us the equity. Therefore not the greatest idea to even ship it.

      So only option would be here to take the implied odds if we assume he is capable of paying us off, where with FD for example we would need from him on the turn ~$2,40.

      Best Regards.