[NL20-NL50] [sh] NL 25 KQ TP vs mss's donk on the turn

    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1754884
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $37.50 - VPIP: 56, PFR: 38, 3B: 20, AF: 6.0, Hands: 16
      Hero (MP): $25.00 -
      CO: $25.00 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 12, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 85
      BTN: $22.34 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 23
      SB: $10.00 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 15, 3B: 5, AF: 2.2, Hands: 1048
      BB: $25.00 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 17, 3B: 7, AF: 3.1, Hands: 644

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with Q :spade: K :spade:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.87, 2 folds, SB calls $0.77, 1 fold

      Flop: ($1.99) 6 :heart: 4 :diamond: Q :club: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.15, SB calls $1.15

      Turn: ($4.29) 2 :club: (2 players)
      SB bets $2.05, Hero calls $2.05

      River: ($8.39) 2 :heart: (2 players)
      SB bets $5.93, Hero folds

      I realize that calling turn to fold river is prolly a losing play but I also don't think that I have to call river when I think I'm very often beat. I thought on the turn that villain might block bet some of his pp's for thin value / protection but I don't think he is shoving them on the river. Should I just fold turn vs his unexpected play? Donk turn % = 0, FFcbet - 45%
  • 4 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Shove turn imo vs midstacker if you don't plan on calling 100% of rivers. That's the most blank a blank can get imo and you are towards the top of your range on that board. Probably not quite TOP but close to it.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello DeMarcohsp,

      Shoving the turn wouldn't make much sense. I don't assume that such a tight guy has a lot of backdoor FDs in his range nor SDs. Any weaker hands is just folding on the turn vs our shove.

      So what you should take a look here is his cold calling range from SB, what's his donking range overall and maybe AF on flop & turn. Plus added WTSD/W$SD -> high W$SD we don't beat much there. He is rarely bluffing like that and neither I wouldn't assume him turning PPs into bluff like that.

      So dependent on his donking range or AF on the turn I would make my assumptions but most likely I wouldn't be folding the turn either but it's still possible to fold the river when his range there is really narrow if he has mainly small cold calling range as PPs which wouldn't turn their hand into bluff if he has low AF on the river and high W$SD.

      If we assume him capable of bluffing then keep his range wide on the turn and let him ship with worse on the river and snap-call it off. :)

      Best Regards.
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      CC SB = 6
      WTSD/W@SD = 25/48
      Affq : 29/29

      Ehmmm, fold turn ? :f_eek:
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by DeMarcohsp
      CC SB = 6
      WTSD/W@SD = 25/48
      Affq : 29/29

      Ehmmm, fold turn ? :f_eek:
      As long the guy could still donk out with 99-JJ or whatsoever hands I wouldn't be folding the turn but rather the river cause there I assume be behind -> he isn't turning any showdown value into bluff there. And as you see from CC -> PPs mainly.