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[NL20-NL50] NL25SH AK pre-flop

    • awishformore
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (CO): $25.80
      BTN: $27.01 (VP 29 / PR 21 / 3B 7)
      SB: $26.10
      BB: $25.00
      UTG: $11.44
      MP: $48.26

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has A:spade: K:spade:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.75, BTN raises to $2.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $7.00, BTN raises to $27.01 and is all-in, Hero calls $18.80 and is all-in

      Flop: ($51.95, 2 players) 7:heart: 6:spade: 7:diamond:

      Turn: ($51.95, 2 players) 6:club:

      River: ($51.95, 2 players) 5:club:

      I am just in general wondering if you can even go broke with AK pre-flop on NL25. It just seems that people are very tight pre-flop when it comes to anything other than light 3bets.

      I am thinking whether I should only 4bet/broke in these spots if I have the read that they frequently 3bet from the blinds or from the button? What's my play if I don't 4bet? Can I call and play oop or is it OK to just fold? If it depends, what does it depend on?
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello awishformore,

      The problem here is that his average 3bet is 7% overall but it might be way smaller on the BTN and maybe the only 3bet frequency comes from the blinds and that's why his 3bet is 7%. Maybe from BTN just 4% and vs those guys we can't really 4bet for value and go broke cause he isn't really going broke with worse and nor 3betting you.

      Therefore should take a look what's his 3bet from a specific position as from BTN and then decide what to do. Could even vs small 3bet frequency just fold the hand as well while OOP can't be really called vs him and played with huge profit.

      Best Regards.
    • CallumN
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      Come on mate. Even if he is just 3betting 4% from the button we still should go broke

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 43.375% 31.03% 12.35% 17532855 6976617.00 { AsKs }
      Hand 1: 56.625% 44.28% 12.35% 25019943 6976617.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }

      Thats assuming he 3bets AQ+ and 99+ (a 4% range) I know its not distributed that way as he will often call 99 and 3bet A2s instead.

      Either way, this is a very very standard 4bet call pre
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Against frequent 3bet I don't mind going broke but against a guy who has 7% 3bet overall and no information on hands nor WTSD/W$SD I don't really see that we are earning huge profit from our play. As I asked for specific positions stats from the blinds & BTN -> according to that we could base his range to be at. Cause I would assume standard player mainly 3bets from the blinds and that's how goes his 3bet higher and maybe only small amount of hands on the BTN - 7% isn't that high for a 3bet.

      With your given range and we assume almost most of his range is going broke vs our 4bet. We know that we need ~50% equity which doesn't exclude rake, with rake excluded would be ~52% cause we have only invested 75 cents so far. We assume that he is folding small part of the range from the given ranges you pointed out, from where comes the profit? It's at the best for us just a 50/50 case without any dynamics. Regular on NL25 I wouldn't assume 3betting as light they do on NL200.