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[NL20-NL50] NL25SH KQ TP river line

    • awishformore
      awishformore
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      MP: $22.68
      CO: $28.72
      BTN: $15.98 (VP 87 / PR 17 / 3B 6)
      Hero (SB): $32.53
      BB: $10.82
      UTG: $28.18

      Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has Q:diamond: K:club:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, fold, BTN calls $1.00

      Flop: ($2.75, 2 players) K:heart: 4:heart: T:spade:
      Hero bets $2.23, BTN calls $2.23

      Turn: ($7.21, 2 players) T:club:
      Hero bets $4.12, BTN calls $4.12

      River: ($15.45, 2 players) 7:heart:
      Hero bets $9.00, BTN calls $8.38 and is all-in


      Not a lot of stats on this fish yet, but I am wondering whether I can check/fold the river here? With the flush hitting and two tens out there, will he ever be betting worse if I check to him? I know he might still call weaker kings, but I don't think they are such a huge part of his range?
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello awishformore,

      Shouldn't be that wrong even to ship while the guy could easily have worse Kx hands in his range. Only reason why to think otherwise is that I wouldn't assume him bluffing the river when FD completes so you could as well just Check/Fold it if you don't want to pick the thin value.

      Best Regards.
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      The river is pretty close I think.

      It just becomes a math problem. How much Kx he has in comparison to Tx and flushes
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by CallumN
      The river is pretty close I think.

      It just becomes a math problem. How much Kx he has in comparison to Tx and flushes
      We need ~28% equity:

      Board: K:heart: 4:heart: T:spade:  T:club:  7:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    61.35%  59.90%   1.45% { QQ-TT, 44, K2s+, T2s+, AhQh, AhJh, QhJh, AhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Ah8h, Qh8h, Jh8h, 9h8h, Ah7h, Qh7h, Jh7h, 9h7h, 8h7h, Ah6h, Qh6h, Jh6h, 9h6h, 8h6h, 7h6h, Ah5h, Qh5h, Jh5h, 9h5h, 8h5h, 7h5h, 6h5h, Ah4h, Qh4h, Jh4h, 9h4h, 8h4h, 7h4h, 6h4h, 5h4h, Ah3h, Qh3h, Jh3h, 9h3h, 8h3h, 7h3h, 6h3h, 5h3h, 4h3h, Ah2h, Qh2h, Jh2h, 9h2h, 8h2h, 7h2h, 6h2h, 5h2h, 4h2h, 3h2h, ATo, K2o+, QTo, JTo, T2o+ }
      UTG+1  38.65%  37.20%   1.45% { KcQd }

      some random range which I came up with his VPIP. Of course we could exclude a lot of hands there but I would assume we still could get it.