[NL20-NL50] NL25SH 99 oop in BB

    • awishformore
      awishformore
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      UTG: $29.82
      MP: $75.06
      CO: $25.00
      BTN: $25.00
      SB: $81.79
      Hero (BB): $30.71

      SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 9:club: 9:spade:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $0.75, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.60, 2 players) 8:heart: 8:diamond: 2:diamond:
      Hero checks, CO bets $0.96, Hero calls $0.96

      Turn: ($3.52, 2 players) 6:heart:
      Hero checks, CO bets $2.40, fold


      Too weak? Call turn, re-evaluate river? Or is there even room for a raise? I have trouble in this kind of spot, it seems I always just call down against better.
  • 13 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello awishformore,

      Depends a lot on the guy here against we playing. If you assume he is Checking behind a lot of overcards/draws there. So I'd rather also fold without any specific information. Well played!

      Best Regards.
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      Are you serious Veriz???

      Turn is 100% a call and decide on the river. Would be nice to have some reads/stats on villain to help our decision also.

      Im probably calling most rivers too. Its just too hard to make strong hands in NLH
    • awishformore
      awishformore
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      I see the problem with your approach in playing the river. My hand seems quite obvious and I would not often play trips or full house this way - at least from his perspective, I would usually raise the turn with those. So on the river, he can bluff again quite profitably.

      How do you go about solving that conundrum on this limit? Note taking?
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      I presume at this limit that people do not value bet thin enough. This means their river bets are more polarised.

      Taking into account these 2 observations their river betting range is going to either be the very top of their range or air. So when we stove 99 vs QQ+ 8x/22/66 and compare it vs all the flush combos and random triple barrel bluffs I think it will indicate a river call most of the time.
    • awishformore
      awishformore
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      I tend to agree on the polarized part, however I would also say that the lower part of that range is a lot smaller than you want to assume. People really don't bluff all that often on NL25SH stars, especially on the river, or I'm just experiencing the top part of the range over-frequently. So I would still tend to then call turn, but re-evaluate river with the strong inclination to fold.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by CallumN
      Are you serious Veriz???

      Turn is 100% a call and decide on the river. Would be nice to have some reads/stats on villain to help our decision also.

      Im probably calling most rivers too. Its just too hard to make strong hands in NLH
      If he is a reg or at least thinking reg he is rarely going to Check behind the river, which for us means:
      a) we call turn -> almost call every river;
      b) we fold the turn -> cause it will be tough for us to Call also the river.

      We don't have any information on the guy so while should I start hero-calling here while I assume he is rarely going to just CB the turn once and then give it up on the river cause our hand is pretty obviously PPs only.

      Going for Check/Call on turn and then Check/Fold on the river just wouldn't make sense vs the range he CBs there. You really think a REG would just leave the pot alone when he decides to CB the turn? I would never-ever do that. Either I am checking behind the turn with my overcards/draws or if I bet the turn then I 99% of the time bet the river cause of the villain calling range is only Pps which fold to 3rd barrel. So hardly exploitable (higher limits).
    • awishformore
      awishformore
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      Well, that might be you. I don't think that most of the regulars on NL25 here have the balls to bet the river there too often. That's why I would fold to the 3rd barrel in the first place.

      Would you say call down and taking notes is a good option, then?
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      If we c/f 99 on the turn then we basically c/f everything besides the 6 combos of sets. We dont have much 8x in our calling range so it now makes it profitable for villian to just bang all 3 every time.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by CallumN
      If we c/f 99 on the turn then we basically c/f everything besides the 6 combos of sets. We dont have much 8x in our calling range so it now makes it profitable for villian to just bang all 3 every time.
      Why? If I would get some information on the guy about his barreling tendency I would start calling him as well down while I don't have any stat even of CB here nor how he plays I don't see why it should be ever exploitable or somehow losing money in long run as I assume to see a lot Check behinds on the turn from any draws/overcards. Why should we assume always that a unknown play is always a maniac? -> My default is unknown to treat as rather tight cause we don't have any information to believe how he plays. CO range is of course wide but how much of his range would 2nd barrel?

      As I assumed from Hero line that he expected overcards/draws to be Check behind.

      Well, that might be you. I don't think that most of the regulars on NL25 here have the balls to bet the river there too often. That's why I would fold to the 3rd barrel in the first place.

      If he doesn't have the balls then I would assume he is not 2nd barreling either cause he is rarely laying many hands down which called the flop after flatting preflop. The range is mainly towards some FD hands (some part of Ax floats) which isn't that huge part of your range (comparison to PP) cause most of the broadways I would assume you are 3betting vs unknown.

      Would you say call down and taking notes is a good option, then?

      If you Call the turn -> Call the river. He has huge amount of 3rd barreling cards there which are bad for you but good for him to 3rd barrel, any overcard, any FD complete so most of the deck. Which of course is a solution if we assume him having a wider range which is 2nd barreling and should be fine to Check/Call both vs CO range.
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      His turn barrelling range is just too high imo on this board

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 39.589% 39.11% 00.48% 1807 22.00 { 9c9s }
      Hand 1: 60.411% 59.94% 00.48% 2769 22.00 { 88+, 66, 22, AdKd, AhKh, AdQd, AhQh, AdJd, AhJh, AdTd, AhTh, Ad9d, Ah9h, A8s, Ad7d, Ah7h, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ah5h, Ad4d, Ah4h, Ad3d, Ah3h, Ah2h, KdQd, KhQh, KdJd, KhJh, KdTd, KhTh, Kd9d, Kh9h, K8s, Kd7d, Kh7h, QdJd, QhJh, QdTd, QhTh, Qd9d, Qh9h, Q8s, JdTd, JhTh, Jd9d, Jh9h, J8s, Td9d, Th9h, T8s, Td7d, Th7h, 98s, 9d7d, 9h7h, 86s+, AdKc, AhKc, AhKd, AsKc, AdQc, AhQc, AhQd }

      Like i said before I think his river betting range is going to be really polarised as people dont vbet thin enough at these levels so a river call will be another easy math problem.
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      I also think villians sizing on the river on diferent cards is going to be extremely important.

      I was saying with a friend that if the river is a off suit A for example and villian bets half pot, we should CRAI. If the guy bombs big we should prob just call etc.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Agree with the thoughts and also for the given equity that's also why I'd rather know the opponent. We can't give him either almost 100% of his FD range to double-barrel and we might also include some weaker PPs as 77/55 which I included.

      I was saying with a friend that if the river is a off suit A for example and villian bets half pot, we should CRAI. If the guy bombs big we should prob just call etc.

      That would be also my plan but the problem in those spot is:
      a) completes - equity is pretty miserable which means we have to have great reads to make such a call-down:

      Board: 8:heart: 8:diamond: 2:diamond:  6:heart:  T:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    75.52%  75.00%   0.52% { 88+, 66, 22, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 86s+, AdKd, AhKh, AdQd, AhQh, KdQd, KhQh, AdJd, AhJh, KdJd, KhJh, QdJd, QhJh, AdTd, AhTh, KdTd, KhTh, QdTd, QhTh, JdTd, JhTh, Ad9d, Ah9h, Kd9d, Kh9h, Qd9d, Qh9h, Jd9d, Jh9h, Td9d, Th9h, Ad7d, Ah7h, Kd7d, Kh7h, Td7d, Th7h, 9d7d, 9h7h, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ah5h, Ad4d, Ah4h, Ad3d, Ah3h, Ah2h, AdKc, AhKd, AhKc, AsKc, AdQc, AhQd, AhQc }
      UTG+1  24.48%  23.96%   0.52% { 9s9c }


      b) completes - kind of the same as for cause most of the 2nd barreling range was for you FD hands:

      Board: 8:heart: 8:diamond: 2:diamond:  6:heart:  T:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    75.52%  75.00%   0.52% { 88+, 66, 22, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 86s+, AdKd, AhKh, AdQd, AhQh, KdQd, KhQh, AdJd, AhJh, KdJd, KhJh, QdJd, QhJh, AdTd, AhTh, KdTd, KhTh, QdTd, QhTh, JdTd, JhTh, Ad9d, Ah9h, Kd9d, Kh9h, Qd9d, Qh9h, Jd9d, Jh9h, Td9d, Th9h, Ad7d, Ah7h, Kd7d, Kh7h, Td7d, Th7h, 9d7d, 9h7h, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ah5h, Ad4d, Ah4h, Ad3d, Ah3h, Ah2h, AdKc, AhKd, AhKc, AsKc, AdQc, AhQd, AhQc }
      UTG+1  24.48%  23.96%   0.52% { 9s9c }


      c) overcards - mainly those J/Q overcards are also good cards but with K & A the equity goes down cause he has more of those in his range:

      Board: 8:heart: 8:diamond: 2:diamond:  6:heart:  Q:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    59.09%  58.59%   0.51% { 88+, 66, 22, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 86s+, AdKd, AhKh, AdQd, AhQh, KdQd, KhQh, AdJd, AhJh, KdJd, KhJh, QdJd, QhJh, AdTd, AhTh, KdTd, KhTh, QdTd, QhTh, JdTd, JhTh, Ad9d, Ah9h, Kd9d, Kh9h, Qd9d, Qh9h, Jd9d, Jh9h, Td9d, Th9h, Ad7d, Ah7h, Kd7d, Kh7h, Td7d, Th7h, 9d7d, 9h7h, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ah5h, Ad4d, Ah4h, Ad3d, Ah3h, Ah2h, AdKc, AhKd, AhKc, AsKc, AdQc, AhQd, AhQc }
      UTG+1  40.91%  40.40%   0.51% { 9s9c }


      Board: 8:heart: 8:diamond: 2:diamond:  6:heart:  A:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    73.76%  73.27%   0.50% { 88+, 66, 22, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 86s+, AdKd, AhKh, AdQd, AhQh, KdQd, KhQh, AdJd, AhJh, KdJd, KhJh, QdJd, QhJh, AdTd, AhTh, KdTd, KhTh, QdTd, QhTh, JdTd, JhTh, Ad9d, Ah9h, Kd9d, Kh9h, Qd9d, Qh9h, Jd9d, Jh9h, Td9d, Th9h, Ad7d, Ah7h, Kd7d, Kh7h, Td7d, Th7h, 9d7d, 9h7h, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ah5h, Ad4d, Ah4h, Ad3d, Ah3h, Ah2h, AdKc, AhKd, AhKc, AsKc, AdQc, AhQd, AhQc }
      UTG+1  26.24%  25.74%   0.50% { 9s9c }


      So which means practically half of the deck we don't want to see on the river. Would we want to make such a variance play in long run with no information? That's really up to everyone who plays the hand, I usually pick for it rather tighter approach without good reads/stats. Higher limits adjusting would be different cause there I would also see people being more aggressive, that's at least my view of the hand.
    • CallumN
      CallumN
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2012 Posts: 1,141
      Really nice post Veriz, gives a good idea of our river equity on different run outs.

      Hope this has come close to answering awishformore :P