[NL20-NL50] A8s Flopped 2pair vs Ugly river

    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1757419
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $50.00 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 11, 3B: 5, AF: 6.5, Hands: 1058
      UTG+1: $54.53 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 8, AF: 2.2, Hands: 608
      UTG+2: $48.69 - VPIP: 62, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 13
      MP1: $47.25 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 11, 3B: 3, AF: 4.0, Hands: 73
      MP2: $56.67 - VPIP: 8, PFR: 8, 3B: 4, AF: 0.0, Hands: 51
      Hero (CO): $50.00 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 12, 3B: 5, AF: 2.1, Hands: 81861
      BTN: $38.49 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 12, 3B: 13, AF: 0.3, Hands: 17
      SB: $55.34 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 58
      BB: $20.00 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 14, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 69

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with 8 :spade: A :spade:
      2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.25, BTN calls $2.25, 3 folds

      Flop: ($5.75) 8 :diamond: K :club: A :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.75, BTN calls $3.75

      Turn: ($13.25) 9 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $9.25, BTN calls $9.25

      River: ($31.75) Q :heart: (2 players)
      [color=red]Hero $??

      Villian is unknown, what do we do on this river?
  • 6 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Hackett77,

      As long he seems to be rather passive guy I guess I would either decide I am picking the thin value there and shipping it if I assume he is having enough of those Ax hands or just Check/Folding. Most likely I'd go towards ship vs his stack.

      Wouldn't make sense to bet like 1/2 pot size -> then rather just ship it cause he is calling anyways if he has the Ax nor we can't assume that he is going to bluff while he is passive.

      Best Regards.
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      Thanks Veriz,

      Yes this was the connundrum because I didnt think he would bluff any missed draws (although I really have no idea after so little hands) but shipping seemed a little thin as im only really likely to looked up by AJ or possible AT.

      Sop I thought it was either ship or check fold, In the end I shipped and he called with AJ which I thought was pretty bad but hey. I just wasn't sure if really its too think a bet?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Hackett77
      Thanks Veriz,

      Yes this was the connundrum because I didnt think he would bluff any missed draws (although I really have no idea after so little hands) but shipping seemed a little thin as im only really likely to looked up by AJ or possible AT.

      Sop I thought it was either ship or check fold, In the end I shipped and he called with AJ which I thought was pretty bad but hey. I just wasn't sure if really its too think a bet?
      Would be a lot thinner when we would be against a full stack but usually those smaller stacks I treat as bad players and I wouldn't be surprised to see even worse Ax hands.
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      Originally posted by veriz
      Originally posted by Hackett77
      Thanks Veriz,

      Yes this was the connundrum because I didnt think he would bluff any missed draws (although I really have no idea after so little hands) but shipping seemed a little thin as im only really likely to looked up by AJ or possible AT.

      Sop I thought it was either ship or check fold, In the end I shipped and he called with AJ which I thought was pretty bad but hey. I just wasn't sure if really its too think a bet?
      Would be a lot thinner when we would be against a full stack but usually those smaller stacks I treat as bad players and I wouldn't be surprised to see even worse Ax hands.
      Yeah Your right, I mean even if AT is the worst hand he calls with its not really that thin it seems:



      http://www.pokerstrategy.com

      Board: 8dAcKc9hQh
      Equity Win Tie
      CO 72.73% 72.73% 0.00% { As8s }
      BU 27.27% 27.27% 0.00% { AQs-ATs, AQo-ATo }


      Even if I take out ATo and leave in ATs to weight the times he calls/folds AT

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com

      Board: 8dAcKc9hQh
      Equity Win Tie
      CO 62.50% 62.50% 0.00% { As8s }
      BU 37.50% 37.50% 0.00% { AQs-ATs, AQo-AJo }

      How would you proceed vs a Full stack reg on the river?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Vs a REG -> lets say some normal AF ~2-3 I might even Check/Fold it cause I wouldn't assume him Calling the turn with FD nor he ain't calling you the river with worse.
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      Originally posted by veriz
      Vs a REG -> lets say some normal AF ~2-3 I might even Check/Fold it cause I wouldn't assume him Calling the turn with FD nor he ain't calling you the river with worse.
      Ok yes thanks thats what I thought too.