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[NL20-NL50] NL25SH QQ vs river shove

    • awishformore
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: $25.35
      Hero (UTG): $42.17
      MP: $9.65
      CO: $22.64
      BTN: $25.00 (VPP 27 / PFR 21 / WTS 50)
      SB: $25.10

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has Q:diamond: Q:club:

      Hero raises to $0.87, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.87, fold, fold

      Flop: ($2.09, 2 players) J:heart: 4:diamond: 7:heart:
      Hero bets $1.70, BTN calls $1.70

      Turn: ($5.49, 2 players) 6:diamond:
      Hero bets $4.03, BTN calls $4.03

      River: ($13.55, 2 players) 2:diamond:
      Hero bets $7.12, BTN raises to $18.40 and is all-in, Hero calls $11.28

      Hands like these are really making me feel physically sick.

      58 and 53 feel really unlikely to me here, and I think he would already shove that on the turn with the two flush draws out there. A back-door flush is possible, but I don't think he will call that big turn bet too often with two diamonds - which ones could he have that he calls on the flop.

      So that leaves what? Really? The only thing I was thinking is: AJ who thinks there is some value in shoving. Those fish don't really think about what worse hands could call, do they?

      Again, where does my thinking go wrong? Where am I too certain on my thinking? And should I maybe just bet/fold even smaller on the river?
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343

      AJ should never shove there, so his shoving range should be two pair or better. I would bet myself 15$ on the river and then I´m pot committed to call his shove. As played: folding is likely better option, since players would not bluff these spots.

      best regards,