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[NL20-NL50] NL25SH middle pair vs strange line

    • awishformore
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      SB: $30.45 (VPP 31 / PFR 25)
      Hero (BB): $25.20
      UTG: $21.97
      MP: $25.00
      CO: $14.50
      BTN: $48.58

      SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has K:spade: J:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.50, 2 players) 5:diamond: A:diamond: J:heart:
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.12, SB calls $1.12

      Turn: ($3.74, 2 players) Q:heart:
      SB bets $1.96, Hero raises to $7.00, SB calls $5.04

      River: ($17.74, 2 players) 5:club:
      SB checks, Hero bets $16.33 and is all-in, SB calls $16.33

      This hand also makes me go wtf at the end.

      On the flop, I'm thinking that he check/calls maybe gutshots with the intention to float oop, maybe JX and maybe draws. I also think it's slightly possible that he sometimes checks an ace to me, but not that often.

      On the turn, when he donks out, I think his hand changed, so he might have picked up a pair with his gutshot (QT/KQ) or a gutshot with his pair (KJ/JT). Less likely a two-pair (QJ) which i think would check/raise or donk bigger. Or maybe he wants to set the price for drawing. I don't really see an ace as very likely anymore.

      On the river, I think the 5 is perfect to jam; his possible two-pair was counter-feited, his possible draws all missed. I don't really see him on any hand that can call.

      Where do I go wrong with my assumptions?
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343

      some players would take pot control or trap with AJ/AQ that they woudl never going to fold and also some would prefer going to pot control with AK that they would likely also not going to fold. Since draws missed they are likely going to call you down with Ax hands, so I don´t like that much your river shove. Not sure about raising on the turn. If he is betting himself he likely has smt and m not sure if he is going to b/f often to make raise profitable.

      best regards,