Indeed, it may be more prone to variance.

Using a HUD in those games (as in every game, for that matter) is of paramount importance. This way one can easily distinguish between the variety of fishes and find an optimal way to play against them. If you already have a reasonable sample against them, that is. Also, never bluff against a pescado.

If you are already using a HUD and have some statistics on your own play, then just take the percentage you have finished in first place, and calculate the probability of getting 4, (or X) first place finishes in a row.

I, for example, have 21% first place finishes in one table, six max hyper turboes with a sample size over 6600 tournaments.

0.21^4=0,00195 ~ 0,2%

0,02% of 6600 is roughly 13. This means that over those 6600 games I should have won the jackpot (that requires 4 consecutive wins) on average 13 times. Now you simply have to take into account how much extra rake you will be paying and how high the jackpot is. I imagine that you will be paying .20 Yankistan'i dollars extra for each SnG. In my case it would be 1320 dollars. It then remains to find out, whether winning the jackpot 13 times is more, or less than 1320.

Basically, if the jackpot is more than 102 dollars, then it becomes profitable.

You will obviously get different results with a 12man tournament, but the overall idea remains the same.

Also, if the site you play at is any good in paying rakeback, or has a decent VIP programme, then you could deduct rakeback from the extra rake you pay.

Also, I remember some sites offering a consolation prize for second place finishes. This will boost the winnings even more.