[NL20-NL50] Nl25Sh QQ

    • martins1337
      martins1337
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.06.2009 Posts: 272
      villain unknown but seems on the lagish side


      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      BU:
      $25.00
      SB:
      $30.54
      BB:
      $21.39
      MP3 (Hero):
      $25.00
      CO:
      $25.00


      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q, Q.
      Hero raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, 3 folds, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($1.85) 5, T, J (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.25, CO raises to $3.50, Hero raises to $8.25, CO raises to $24.25, Hero calls $16.00.

      I 3bet flop for protection and value, he looked aggresive to raise flop with Ad, maybe even pp with diamond, but not sure
      once he goes all in, is this call or fold?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello martins1337,

      If you are 3betting in those spots you are never folding this. 3betting means you are doing it for value and the odds are way too good to fold afterwards.

      But the question is how many hands does he have in his range which is raising? With excluded rake we need ~47% equity:

      Board: 5:diamond: J:diamond: T:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    55.30%  55.25%   0.05% { JJ-TT, 55, JTs, AdKd, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, Ad9d, Td9d, JTo, AdKh, AdKs, AdKc, AsKd, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AsQd, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, KdJh, KdJs }
      UTG+1  44.70%  44.64%   0.05% { QdQh }

      We just get 45% equity, therefore we have to assume that he also has pure bluffs in his range, although which isn't always sure cause we also block the Q and T/J are also on board. If you assume he is raising even more hands then we can easily go broke, although I would assume him more often even some of those hands just Call and play on the turn.

      Best Regards.