Is Party Poker "rigged"?

    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      Manipulations on the random number generator on the part of PP???
      Written by iluya

      Every week, if not at times daily, new threads appear in the forum, in which people ask if, or try to prove via databases that PP is “rigged” (with “rigged” we mean that there's fraud on the part of PartyPoker). That this is not possible with 100% certainty will be described in the following article.

      1. What is PartyPoker actually?

      PartyPoker is part of PartyGaming Plc which buys up many big online casinos and other poker platforms in the meantime. Since June 30th 2005, PartyGaming Plc is also listed on the London Stock Exchange. As many of you have already read, the company headquarters of PartyPoker are located in Gibraltar, which is part of the EU and thus subject to stiff examinations.
      The company's daily gross profit with poker alone lies at $721,000. Altogether, PartyGaming generates a daily profit of about $1 million. Every day, more than 50,000 people play online poker on PartyPoker.com!

      Would a company with such gigantic profits risk tricking its players?

      Let me pull up a comparable argument from your everyday life: Is it probable that a baker, who makes high monthly profits, maximizes his winnings by including waste paper into the bread to have less expenses? I know this is a rather extreme example, but the assumption that PartyPoker tricks its players is just as fanciful.

      Also keep in mind that PartyGaming is a public company, which has many investors. They would never risk their business with such a stupid fraud.
      Every public company is vulnerable in case of fraud. If such a case went public, PartyGaming would sustain a loss which could easily reach the three-digit million area.


      2. But is it possible to have so much good/bad luck?

      One of the reasonings often found in the forum is this: In the articles it says that the probability to hit my outs is x%. But I haven't done so for such a long time.

      An example: We have a pocket pair and of course we want to hit our set on the flop. We do get it about every 7.5th time. But for days now, we only flopped three of a kind in one out of 30 cases.
      Naturally, it's easy to put the “blame” on PartyPoker. But this is just bad luck. Everybody who already plays poker for some time experienced a “downswing”, and every time they complained about it. Compensating this is often an “upswing”, which is mostly due to your own “skills” of course... or so you think.
      In some cases people are really hit by a streak of bad luck. Usually, it's those people then who complain in the forum that the reason for this is a manipulation on the part of PartyPoker.

      3. How are we safeguarded?

      At first this question may sound a bit ranted. We're talking about what is actually responsible for our “bad beats”. Like on any other poker platform, it is a random number generator.
      In PartyPoker's case, our “downswings” are caused by the “PP Random Number Generator”. If you want to make sure that it is absolutely safe, feel free to do so. It is a true random number generator with “real entropy”. If you are unsure about what role bad luck plays when it comes to losses, take a closer look at them in the internet.

      4. So why are people still complaining all the time?

      Let's assume that 1,000,000 hands will be played today. With so many hands it's naturally impossible for the mathematical favourite to always win. If a person increasingly experiences such losing hands, we can talk about a “downswing”. It happens every day to numerous people in quite an aggravating way. If a person seems to only get unlucky for weeks though, it is simply bad luck in its perfection.
      These people then calculate, how improbable their case is, which is of course indisputable! But they do not consider that they are those people who have been hit the worst out of 10,000 players! Their calculations don't show that PP is rigged, but rather confirms that for them the sh*t has really hit the fan, pardon my French.
      Analogy: Somebody wins in the lottery. After winning, he calculates the probability which is extremely small. So he concludes that something must be wrong → The lottery is rigged. (Somebody has a really nasty “downswing” in poker. He calculates the probability for his bad luck, which is extremely small. So he concludes that something must be wrong → Poker is rigged.)

      5. How can I prove my bad luck?

      This will hardly be possible. But if you think you have to, try it like this: Collect via PokerTracker an incredibly high number of hands. You would at least need several million hands.
      Now analyze the database. Of course you will notice that some players won't even get close to the probability. On the other side, other players had an incredible amount of luck.
      If you now take the average of each hand though, you will see that the probabilities are exactly as high as shown in the strategy articles.
  • 83 replies
    • JohnJames97
      JohnJames97
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2008 Posts: 173
      1.FullTilt - I dropped -$1400 at fulltilt when i got 8 2%er's on the river only bad beats in a row, all within 20 minutes,

      2. PokerStars - also i got about 8 hours straight on Pokerstars where i dropped about -$2400. Me and my brother estimated the odds of that long and number of losses to bad beats in succession to be about 37 000 000 to 1.

      I reserve the right to hold strong bias toward the above pokerrooms.

      Cheers and Wealth

      eg, QQ QQK over KK KQQ + (7 more in a row all on the river only).
      K4 KKAT4 over KQ KKAT4 etc
    • Reanimater
      Reanimater
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 148
      I can assure you that everything said is true.

      There are the Indian, Israeli, London and Bulgarian offices. When you divide power you get less corruption.
    • iamthewall
      iamthewall
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.01.2009 Posts: 8
      lol johnjames97...

      ever thought that maybe you are just...well, not very good in poker? besides, how do you come up to 37 000 000 to 1. just randomly keyed in some numbers in a calculator?

      im sure full tilt and pokerstars make way way way more then $2400 in 8 hours. they dont have to con you.
    • TFMonty
      TFMonty
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2008 Posts: 126
      true but employees at at various companies dont make that much, far more to be made passing info to their friends to take advantage of. ongame is the only one i know about definetly, whereby it is possible for employees to see the full hand in progress before it is dealt.

      http://www.globalgamingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1180&Itemid=67
    • Zheelvern
      Zheelvern
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.10.2007 Posts: 704
      Poker is rigged for those who can't play +ev.
    • Deflowerer
      Deflowerer
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.05.2008 Posts: 174
      I don't know but from my experience when ever I get on final table I get sucked out with a monster hand.
      Although I won a few so I can't complain.
      I don't like AA vs KK (QQ,JJ),situations in cash games,they happen way too often.It's mostly a coin flip and almost impossible to fold.

      @My favorite game is Omaha h/l but that's like a joke on Party poker.
      Why such a poor choice of tables?I don't get them at all.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      It should be obvious to anyone who can think with an ounce of logic that even the most incredible series of bad luck doesn't prove anything at all.

      Hero thinks: "I just got really, really unlucky. I've had ten bad beats in a row. That's not possible, so Party Poker (or whichever site it is) must be rigged. It must be cheating me out of my money."

      Here's the problem with that argument (even if you could show that the odds of whatever series of bad luck were in fact 37 000 000 to 1):

      What happens when you don't win a pot that you expected to win? Well, someone else wins it instead, of course. And what happens to the pot that other person wins? Well, Party Poker takes a rake of x% of the pot. And here's the crucial bit: they take the same rake whether you win the pot or someone else does. It makes no difference at all to PP who wins.

      Remember, it's not PP's money you're winning, it's other customers'. So there is no reason why PP would want to rig it so a particular player did badly.

      PP makes its money in two ways:
      1. rake from money that its customers gamble with; and
      2. bank interest that they earn whenever a customer makes a deposit.

      They do not make money from fixing it so that a particular player does badly, because if one player has lots of bad luck it just means some other players are having lots of good luck. And they get the rake either way.

      So, stop moaning about rigging and get real.

      :rolleyes:
    • Deflowerer
      Deflowerer
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.05.2008 Posts: 174
      Originally posted by Tim64
      It should be obvious to anyone who can think with an ounce of logic that even the most incredible series of bad luck doesn't prove anything at all.

      Hero thinks: "I just got really, really unlucky. I've had ten bad beats in a row. That's not possible, so Party Poker (or whichever site it is) must be rigged. It must be cheating me out of my money."

      Here's the problem with that argument (even if you could show that the odds of whatever series of bad luck were in fact 37 000 000 to 1):

      What happens when you don't win a pot that you expected to win? Well, someone else wins it instead, of course. And what happens to the pot that other person wins? Well, Party Poker takes a rake of x% of the pot. And here's the crucial bit: they take the same rake whether you win the pot or someone else does. It makes no difference at all to PP who wins.

      Remember, it's not PP's money you're winning, it's other customers'. So there is no reason why PP would want to rig it so a particular player did badly.

      PP makes its money in two ways:
      1. rake from money that its customers gamble with; and
      2. bank interest that they earn whenever a customer makes a deposit.

      They do not make money from fixing it so that a particular player does badly, because if one player has lots of bad luck it just means some other players are having lots of good luck. And they get the rake either way.

      So, stop moaning about rigging and get real.

      :rolleyes:
      I still don't get it why I'm doing like 5 times better playing live c-games and tournaments than on internet.
      Poker on 12-16 tables?Wtf?lol
      That's why I hate it but the people who complain are not complaining about sites being rigged,they are mostly playing by the book and losing money which is in long terms simply impossible if you're a half decent player with a good bankroll management.
      So my guess is that the most of the internet poker "complainers" complain about the bad software who gives the edge to idiots ready to call all in with let's say 44.
      That strategy is great for poker sites if you look at the big picture.More players equals more money.
      So you can honestly tell me that Poker Stars or Full tilt are not closer to a science fiction drama scenarios than to actual poker?
      I would just like the site where skill is appreciated more than crazy coin flips and playing on the 12-ish tables like some fckng bot.
      A LOT of people will disagree with me but that's my opinion and I'm sticking to it after all my internet "experience".
    • ruisantoscunha
      ruisantoscunha
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.11.2008 Posts: 84
      Strange things happen in online poker gaming, and they can rigg the game, why?

      Cause if you are a non depositor you will win money from them, they will have to give you money, so they can easly put in the same hand a KK or a QQ to you and a AA to you opponent.

      Remember no companie likes to give you free money, it happen everywhere, I don´t blelive in a single person that totally trust any online company, even if they are in the stock exchange.

      You can´t prove this and you can´t prove the opposite. So better not to trust your money online.

      They are so innocent that some close the poker rooms forever, and don´t give the costumers money back.

      The more they take away the more you will deposite, and don´t tell me that is another person that wins, it can easly be a bot.
    • opal99
      opal99
      Black
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,270
      Originally posted by ruisantoscunha
      Cause if you are a non depositor you will win money from them, they will have to give you money, so they can easly put in the same hand a KK or a QQ to you and a AA to you opponent.
      Maybe you missed the point of online poker rooms: they don't give a fuck if you win or not.. They don't give you single cent when you win and don't take single cent when you lose.

      Actually, they're happy when you win, because that's the only way they get money out of you (rake is paid only by winner obv).
    • Reanimater
      Reanimater
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 148
      guys cards are not random in online poker ; )

      nobody "gives" the advantage. here are two scenarios:

      1. you might fold with a 8/10 to find yourself with a flush on the board which you missed
      2. you may call raise check with a 8/10 to find yourself with a flush on the board which you just hit


      THE PLAYERS actions do not change the value of the cards.

      THE DECK is predetermined and it does not change according to your actions. Self-important people would feel like something is against them, some force majeur, and this is why they loose.

      You loose because you made the bad decision. Cards are not random, only the possible deck cards are - make the difference?

      I also mentioned before in my post that there are 4 different partypoker offices in the world and it is not like you do not know who is doing what there.

      Actually half the country where there are partypoker employees you cannot play from there (India and Bulgaria)
    • NiekamNeidomu
      NiekamNeidomu
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.05.2007 Posts: 307
      R I G G E D ! xD ! ! !
    • Waiboy
      Waiboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2008 Posts: 4,877
      I've got $10 free once from PP and lost it playing $2 SnGs, even though I was a winning player on iPoker.

      Definitely rigged. Definitely. And it's all Elvis Presley's doing... he masterminds the whole conspiracy.
    • Verre
      Verre
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.02.2009 Posts: 708
      I switched to Poker Stars recently. I have noticed a trend of losing on the river after my chips are all in good. I looked back on my hand history and I am losing on the river after all ins at a 17% rate when the players I'm against have 3 outs or less.

      Yesterday I held Aces and A K 2 flopped. I bet and the player called. Another King came on the turn. I bet, other player goes all in, I call. On the bubble with all my chips in the pot I'm sitting with the nuts. My opponent flips over pocket twos. River.... 2.

      That being said, even though the rate at which I am losing these hands is high, I am a firm believer that
      1) The more times you get your money in properly the more times you will get bad beats. You will not notice it the other way around because you are getting your money in good.

      2)100 SnGs isn't enough data to make any conclusions.

      3)No Poker site that makes the kind of money Pokerstars makes would risk thier license to allow thier employees/big depositors any breaks at the table. They will make thier money either way.
    • lhein
      lhein
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 2
      Well...what about :
      adjusting the rate of turn/river wins only slightly would do the job: more action -> more rake (or faster turn over in tourneys). If you adjust it over time, so that it is clustered towards the end, the overall picture of hands will look random. Of course the cards is not picked based on player actions, that would be WAY to obvious! If you want to cheat and have come this far, you have not been that sloppy!

      ...or

      having access to the dealing algorithm (would make it easier to claim random deals then, but you could also just take the right sample).

      I am aware of the psykological effect of remembering losses better than wins. However, looking into hand histories for the past few year, did confirm my concerns (my memory was not that biased afterall).

      Is the sample size then large enough? From a statistical point of view, most likely not. What is a few thousand observations anyway, but that is what I can look in to. I do not think I can really use single event hand histories from other for anything. It is not the events as such, but the frequencies and average trends. If there were no bad beats, there was no game!

      Besides this type of data will always be heavilly biased by player reactions, which is the beauty about it. No matter what the situation, you can always claim that you played it badly or it was "short term variance" as they call it.

      I also am aware that the game is highly dependent on the players in it: eg say all 10 people, at a 10 seat table goes all in - AA, KK AK suit would have pretty bad odds there - think I would prefer medium suited connectors in that situation then!

      ...and (say site players do not exist) they do not care if you win or loose, but they do care for pot size and tourney turn over - in short: the more action, the more money. So if you wonder why the 3 outs goes home just a little more than it should do (too much would be too obvious) - that would be perfectly healthy business as I see it.

      Anyway: You can then ask yourself: is it rigged, am I really unlucky, are the other players too unpredictable/good at this particular site or am I just a bad poker player ?

      Well, it doesn't really matter does it? Either way the conclusion is he same: stop playing!!!
    • Mstlc
      Mstlc
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 4,676
      Too often I see this "lol, jokerstars does it again" kind of comment...
      So what you just lost a 2 outer on the river, big deal... you could argue that these action turn & river cards just come too often to be "random", or that you take bad beats to often. Personally I don't believe in that kind of stuff... and it's all you're thinking about while playing "x poker side might be ripping me off" then you should give up online poker & go play live...
    • redskwerl
      redskwerl
      Black
      Joined: 03.03.2008 Posts: 3,802
      zomg rigged, i can't seem to win at party anymoar lulz!!

      but seriously now. turn off the effin doomswitch already. kthxbye
    • luitzen
      luitzen
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.04.2009 Posts: 664
      You say that "it's not possible with 100% certainty", but you can't say that since you don't have any proof. Even when you have a database with tons of hands you'll never get further than infinite n certainty. Don't take me wrong, I don't believe in any conspiracies. PartyPoker is a well known poker room with a good name, not doubt that there's nothing wrong with it, but there's no 100% certainty.

      Sorry for bragging about small details, but I tend to do that since I have a 'statistical background'.
    • usun
      usun
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.01.2009 Posts: 1,675
      Hi,

      Here is a grab from my Elephant for Party Poker NL5, 24172 hands, pairs, full-ring tables:
      hand quantity
      ------------------------
      22 129
      33 120
      44 131
      55 118
      66 120
      77 123
      88 103
      99 111
      TT 115
      JJ 105
      QQ 101
      KK 126
      AA 122
      ------------------------------
      average 117.2307692

      1) There is no significant difference.
      So, every 206 hands you get one of these pairs. According to the theory it should be every 220. Close enough for such sample data.

      2) AA vs KK.
      For my stats: my AA vs someone's KK - 5 times, my KK vs someone's AA - 6 times, and once got AA vs AA
      my AA or KK = 148 times; AA vs KK case = 11 times, or every 13 hands got such situation.

      In theory, for FR tables (10 players), each one can have AA or KK every 110 hands, so for 10 people AA vs KK should be somewhere around every 11 hands from them. Taking into account that FR tables are not always full and sample data is small - it perfectly corresponds.

      Conclusion: PartyPoker is not rigged even on lowest limit, so do not use this lame excuse for a bad play :)