SNG 9man Turbo Swings ans EV

    • jurish123
      jurish123
      Platinum
      Joined: 30.08.2008 Posts: 96
      Hello,

      I'm close to first 1000 tourneys 1.50$ and i want to hear people oppinions if i'm doing right or i'm just an idiot because EV line shows that doesnt matter if im up or down because 30BI EV is always negative.

      My graph:




      This EV really gets me despresive because i've got ~400 tourneys down/BE but the line remains negative like i was on heater.

      I'm working with my game everyday, after every session i go through mostly of all my hands in SNG WIZ and Wiz shows that more than 90% pushes were right so i'm want to ask about BE and swings because my roi is only 3.9% so i want to hear what was your biggest swings/BE in 9man and if it's normal to be BE or even have 50-100Bi down in 1-2k tourneys in 1.50$ ?

      ITM is 40.3%, 1.Place 11.8%, 2.Place 15.3%, 3.Place 13.1%, 4.Place 13.1%, 5.Place 15.3%

      Thank you
  • 5 replies
    • grindtolive
      grindtolive
      Global
      Joined: 12.03.2012 Posts: 468
      I think it isnt possible for a good player to have negative ev in 1.5$
    • evertonroar
      evertonroar
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 737
      well its about 1000 games. By my calcs you are about 4-5% roi. and your EV is around -3-5%. My understanding is that after about a 1000 games your real ev lines are still off by up to 5-10% off at least. you have never really been more than 10% off between roi and ev. Take out a couple of heaters around games 250 and 35o and a cooler around games 620 and you are more or less even.

      maybe you have been really unlucky and your kk keeps getting crushed by aa. Maybe you have been really lucky and your kk runs into qq and aa everytime and you always turn the only flush. you knows

      I would say that you are more or less a break even player atm. which puts you ahead of most of the pack. Keep on studying....
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Hi, jurish123!

      Thanks to the other guys for sharing their opinion. We have this really good article about variance and I strongly suggest you read it. It will help you understand and deal with variance in a better way. Click I believe I recommended it to grindtolive some time ago.

      Also, as evertonroar, suggested, 1k games in only 1k games. It's almost a meaningless sample. It should give you a feeling of how you do in these games, but for a beginner I guess it could be really confusing. The more important thing is that you question yourself. That's a must. Also-working on your game is a must. Post hands in our evaluation forum, play with wizard, check nash ranges etc. EV should go up though. It staying under zero is not great, but once again- your true ROI will vary a lot because of the small sample that is not accurate. Work on your game, don't get lazy and it should do for you.


      Cheers!
    • jurish123
      jurish123
      Platinum
      Joined: 30.08.2008 Posts: 96
      Thank you guys for the replies. Im happy to hear that im not an idiot :) Yeap i will read that article and i will work on my game and hope that someday i will be able to see the right way how to play them :)
    • evertonroar
      evertonroar
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 737
      Originally posted by jurish123
      Im happy to hear that im not an idiot
      well we never said that! :)