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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL 50 A7s 6bet shove as bluff pre?

    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players -

      Hero (SB): $53.25 -
      BB: $168.87 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 19, 3B: 8, AF: 3.9, Hands: 291
      UTG: $181.26 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3B: 7, AF: 2.3, Hands: 459
      MP: $50.00 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3B: 3, AF: 7.0, Hands: 98
      CO: $50.00 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 19, 3B: 6, AF: 1.5, Hands: 324
      BTN: $64.00 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 9, 3B: 5, AF: 0.7, Hands: 47

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with 9 :diamond: A :diamond:
      4 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BB raises to $5, Hero raises to $11, BB raises to $19, Hero raises to $53.25, 1 fold

      Viilains 3bet vs hero : 17%

      I'd expect villains range in this scenario to be either:
      a) polarized: QQ+, AQ+ and random bluffs. I don't think he is playing lower pairs/aces like this because I might call sometimes (I'd do this with my top range) and I really expect him to shove this straight away.

             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    29.15%  27.50%   1.65% { Ad9d }
      MP3    70.85%  69.20%   1.65% { QQ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

      + 100% FE vs bluffs I think it should be profitable.

      2) Villain might flat all his strong range and reraise only weaker hands which kinda makes sense because:
      -he keeps my range wide OOP vs his strong range
      -he reraises his bluffs and expect me to play shove/fold which is good when he expects a wide bluffing range from me.

      In this case shove is very good but I don't know if he plays on this level.

      3) Only nuts -don't really expect this, the guy was pretty aggressive vs me and I did not play back that much and meh... it was time for me to start playing back.

      Case II

      If villain would have made the normal 5bet shove I was intending to call.

             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    39.90%  37.46%   2.44% { Ad9d }
      MP3    60.10%  57.66%   2.44% { 77+, AJs+, A7s-A5s, AQo+, A5o }

      What do you think of this?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello DeMarcohsp,

      Any information so far on his fold to 3bet or what kind of image you had on the table? According to that we could also decide what to do. If you guys had crazy dynamics then should be still fine as long I would assume we should easily make him even fold 50% of his hands which should gain us the profit.

      Although I would still go for bigger 4bet -> 2,5x.

      If villain would go directly all-in I wouldn't be calling down with A9s which most likely in long run is going to show -EV, only hand I'd start calling down with hands like AQ when I assume him being capable shipping loose. Rather my range would be towards {99+/AQ+ and maybe AJs}.

      Best Regards.