[NL20-NL50] Don't usually do this

    • Hopey
      Hopey
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2010 Posts: 193
      I don't really like to moan about downswings and being on the wrong end of variance etc. but today was tough. I recently got to NL25, which is a pretty big jump from NL10 so the difference in a -7 buy-in session is pretty gruesome and I feel like I need to get it off my chest a bit. Pretty much to massage my own ego and show that despite losing a ton of monye I actually was unlucky.

      Total loss: $183.24
      All-in EV: -$51.13

      Couple of highly annoying hands:

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3:
      $77.88
      CO:
      $38.19
      BU (Hero):
      $25.35
      SB:
      $26.02
      BB:
      $10.35
      MP2:
      $32.35


      Preflop: Hero is BU with K, K.
      MP2 raises to $0.50, MP3 calls $0.50, CO folds, Hero raises to $2.00, 2 folds, MP2 calls $1.50, MP3 raises to $6.25, Hero raises to $25.35, MP2 raises to $32.35, MP3 folds.

      Flop: ($64.3) K, 7, 2 (2 players)


      Turn: ($64.3) 3 (2 players)


      River: ($64.3) J (2 players)


      Final Pot: $64.3.
      Results follow:

      Hero shows three of a kind, kings(K K).
      MP2 shows a flush, king high(T J).

      MP2 wins with a flush, king high(T J).


      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3 (Hero):
      $25.00
      CO:
      $70.60
      BU:
      $42.30
      SB:
      $25.85
      BB:
      $25.00
      MP2:
      $25.00


      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K, Q.
      MP2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, CO folds, BU calls $0.75, SB raises to $2.50, BB folds, Hero calls $1.75, BU calls $1.75.

      Flop: ($7.75) A, Q, K (3 players)
      SB bets $4.29, Hero raises to $14.83, BU folds, SB raises to $23.35, Hero calls $7.67(All-In).

      Turn: ($53.6) J (2 players)


      River: ($53.6) 4 (2 players)


      Final Pot: $53.6.
      Results follow:

      SB shows a flush, ace high(Q J).
      Hero shows two pairs, kings and queens(K Q).

      SB wins with a flush, ace high(Q J).


      I should have stopped here, at -$155 (all-in e/v-$17) but I didn't and lot one more hand with TT that was truly terrible on my part.

      Lesson: Just stop when it's all going wrong.

      Question: NL25 seems to come with a ton more variance than NL10, has anyone else noticed this? How common is it to lose 5+ buy ins over 1000 hands?
  • 7 replies
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Once I ran 10bi below ev in 1k hands :f_biggrin: @ NL100 tho, but that's not the point. Lots of shit happens sometimes at all stakes in 1k hands, ofc the lower you go and the tighter you play the less likely it is to happen but 5bi in 1k hands doesn't sound like something outrageous @ NL25.

      I think it's a stake where people start ramping up pf aggression more so it'll be more swingy than NL10. But overall player level is rly bad obv so don't worry be happy, things will get better. (and worse) :f_biggrin:

      And yeah, just quit when things not going your way, esp while moving up. Or else you risk hating yourself afterwards, puking, crying yourself to sleep etc while breaking even won't rly make you as happy as losing more will make u sad.
    • Hopey
      Hopey
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2010 Posts: 193
      Originally posted by NightFrostaSS
      Once I ran 10bi below ev in 1k hands :f_biggrin: @ NL100 tho, but that's not the point. Lots of shit happens sometimes at all stakes in 1k hands, ofc the lower you go and the tighter you play the less likely it is to happen but 5bi in 1k hands doesn't sound like something outrageous @ NL25.

      I think it's a stake where people start ramping up pf aggression more so it'll be more swingy than NL10. But overall player level is rly bad obv so don't worry be happy, things will get better. (and worse) :f_biggrin:

      And yeah, just quit when things not going your way, esp while moving up. Or else you risk hating yourself afterwards, puking, crying yourself to sleep etc while breaking even won't rly make you as happy as losing more will make u sad.
      IMO is why this forum is the best for poker, ask a serious question/make a serious point and you get a decent response.

      Thanks for the response, I'll probaby take a day of from poker (it's the first time I've lost an amount of money, that for me, is serious) and then will come back with a good mindset on Sunday.

      I think I have an edge so lets exploit it!
    • gadget51
      gadget51
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.06.2008 Posts: 5,622
      Hi Hopey,

      It does seem a lot to lose, but bare in mind that you already said the jump from nl10 to nl25 is a big one - which I agree it is - so maybe you need to get used to the larger bet and pot sizes. Just moving from nl4 to nl10 had that effect on me.
      What I did was go back to nl4 and add a nl10 table in to my session until I felt more comfortable there.

      I also think a little differently about how to deal with losses as such to, not being a proponent of 'taking a beak' I just play through. I am a believer in volume beats variance basically.

      Just an idea.

      Best regards and get back to crushing soon. Mostly, have fun.

      Mal.
    • Hopey
      Hopey
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2010 Posts: 193
      Well back to NL10 or NL16 it is then.

      20buy-in downswing running about 10 buy ins below EV over about 15k hands or something.

      Ran bad, played bad, lost loads of $$$, pretty pissed off.

      What's even sicker is that this morning I was playing some PLO5 (trying to learn the game) and won 5 flips in a row. It feels like someone allocated my "run good" towards a secondary goal whilst lining me up for constant shots to the bollocks in the games I actually put a lot of effort, time and money into.
    • datsmahname
      datsmahname
      Global
      Joined: 23.11.2009 Posts: 1,366
      you should post that TT hand and try to figure out what you tend to do wrong when you're frustrated. These bad beat hands are not things you can control. However, you can improve how you respond to them.

      Quitting is one response to negative outcomes but its not ideal. Re-gaining control and continuing to play in a spot where your profitable is the best option, but it takes hard work. I know because I struggle with it myself.

      Focus on things you can control.

      Regarding your question:
      Originally posted by datsmahname
      Today we spent a few minutes talking about moving up in stakes and one of the things you can expect. Namely, that your current strategy will tend to win you less money when you move up because you'll tend to face better opponents.

      The net effect is that our winrate decreases. If we chart winnings and hands, as winrate decreases we should expect the slope of the line to become less positive. The same amount of variance produces more break even and losing stretches as our winrate decreases.

      Here's a tool you can use to play around with winrates, expected outcomes and so on.

      http://www.castrovalva.com/~la/win.htm
      • Winrate is obvious enough. You can put in your BB/100 or play around.
      • In LHE Std DEV is typically around 20BB/100 hands. If you're playing full ring it might be around 18BB/100, 6max around 21BB/100.
      • Periods need the same units. If you're winrate and Std DEV are in BB/100, so do periods. Just devide your hands by 100.


      After you put in the data and chart it, click "chart" a few times. What you see is a new line. Thats a possible outcome that could have happened to a player with that winrate over those hands with that variance. Try out extremes with lots and few hands, or a high/low Std DEV or winrate.
    • IngridN
      IngridN
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.03.2011 Posts: 12,162
      Moved this thread to the relevant board.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Hopey,

      Hand #1
      Your 3bet size should be bigger there vs the min-raise, I'd usually use 4x + 1x per Call, so even $2,50. But otherwise not much to comment, just a cooler.

      Hand #2
      Why do you Call the 3bet in first place? Your hand is mainly dominated and you will have tough time postflop, wont play profitable in long run. :)

      So, you played one hand correctly, got a bad beat. 2nd hand was badly played and still got a bad beat. But at least you were ahead when you got it in and therefore should be happy about it. We can't win always in poker and you have to get used to it.

      I don't want to be harsh but this has to be said that rather stop whining about losing with those bad beats cause it's just poker, if you can't live with it then poker isn't for you. There will be always bad beats no matter what you do. Poker has his ups and downs and we have to be strong during the downs and try to learn as much we can during that time cause as you may understand the most mistakes are done when you have a downswing.

      Best Regards.