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[NL20-NL50] QJ two-pair vs river min-raise

    • awishformore
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      CO: $25.00
      BTN: $25.00
      Hero (SB): $27.01
      BB: $16.09 (VP 30 / PR 9 / WTS 33) [25 hands]
      UTG: $12.85

      Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has Q:heart: J:heart:

      fold, CO raises to $0.75, fold, Hero calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($2.25, 3 players) 6:heart: 7:spade: Q:diamond:

      Hero checks, BB checks, CO checks

      Turn: ($2.25, 3 players) J:spade:

      Hero bets $1.82, BB calls $1.82, fold

      River: ($5.89, 2 players) 8:heart:

      Hero bets $3.94, BB raises to $7.88

      I would say I have to call the river min-raise as he might sometimes be on something like J8/78?
  • 2 replies
    • KillerFishes
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 2,313
      tbh this is quite close vs unknown rather fish looking player ... like you can't be sure he's minraising Q8 at all or 78 ... why would he do it? he will be much likely scared and just call ...

      the Qx, Jx hands are discounted and I don't see even raising him it 100% when he hits two pairs...

      let's assume he has all 54,T9 ... (32) + 3 combos of sets (made it just 3 coz sometimes he raises ... ) we got number of 35 combos that beat us ...
      we get like 20% OTR?
      therefore we need
      if i'm correct (x/x+35) > 20% x>8,75 ...

      that's number of bluffing combos ... now it's up just to your feeling bro )) tbh i'm probably folding ... i just don't see him raising there worse 2pairs and not so many sets Oo (checking flop WTF?)
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello awishformore,

      Flop: While having most likely passive guys? REG wont CB into fish anyways here without a mediocre hand I'd even consider leading here while having a TP hand which needs protetion.

      As played
      River: Guess while we can't be even sure what kind of 2pairs he is raising for value I'd be rather Bet/Folding it, for the reason of equity being very low:

      Board: 6:heart: 7:spade: Q:diamond:  J:spade:  8:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    85.71%  85.71%   0.00% { JJ, 88, Q8s, J8s, T9s, 54s, T9o }
      UTG+1  14.29%  14.29%   0.00% { QhJh }

      Best Regards.