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[NL20-NL50] AK 3bet pot single-suited flop

    • awishformore
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      UTG: $4.87
      MP: $14.27 (VP 37 / PR 26 / WTS 40)
      Hero (CO): $25.60
      BTN: $23.80
      SB: $24.55
      BB: $24.50

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has A:club: K:heart:

      fold, MP raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.25, fold, fold, fold, MP calls $1.50

      Flop: ($4.85, 2 players) J:spade: 4:spade: K:spade:
      MP checks, Hero bets $3.83, MP raises to $7.66, Hero raises to $21.62, MP calls $4.36 and is all-in

      Turn: ($28.89, 2 players) A:heart:

      River: ($28.89, 2 players) 3:heart:

      I guess this is a fold on the flop? He would maybe sometimes semi-bluff raise flush draws or FD plus pair, but most of the time, it's two-pair plus, so I'm either crushed or slightly ahead?
  • 4 replies
    • KillerFishes
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 2,313
      yo .. folding is the best imo
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello awishformore,

      Kind of close spot while the guy is so loose and could be calling with a lot of hands vs our small 3bet. While he ain't either fully stacked we need ~30% equity and with for example my assumptions of his range:

      Board: K:spade: J:spade: 4:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    60.94%  55.22%   5.72% { JJ, 44, AKs, K8s+, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, QsTs, As9s, Qs9s, Ts9s, As8s, Qs8s, Ts8s, 9s8s, As7s, 8s7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, AKo, KTo+, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc }
      UTG+1  39.06%  33.34%   5.72% { AcKh }

      we can't really fold with such committed Bet of ours. Not to talk about when he could even sometimes totally slowplay his nut-flush and not raise at all so we could even exclude some of those hands.

      Best Regards.
    • KillerFishes
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 2,313

      ofc this is guessing game, however, I think your range is very-very-very optimistic ... AsJx minraising? for what reason? :)

      NL25 is way to passive imho, you can't expect these ranges like ever.
      If he would have shoved that's different story, but nah ... I don't see for instance AsJh minraising there ever...
      Furthermore, do you really think he's minraising KTo? Any reasoning?

      Just estimating ranges to hit into eq% doesn't seem right and can't help myself this is seems like the spot for me... :)

      btw good luck with the master thesis I hope you will not fail coz my spam :s_biggrin:

    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Well, it's true that you can't always put them on such a part of range and maybe FD only hand would just ship it to gain fold equity. Although you can never be sure what such a guy thinks, maybe he has just min-raise button what is working and never even heard of all-in. :f_biggrin:

      Even if you remove those hands the equity should be still good enough cause then I would also remove some part of his flushes as well, by balancing that the equity is still good enough.

      Thanks, gonna try to finish it. :D