which range to call anytwocards all-ins?

    • 13BlackCats
      13BlackCats
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      Joined: 16.08.2008 Posts: 356
      At the casino, a drunk guy that just won £40k ($60k) on roulette comes to play some £1/2 poker and buys in for 200BB.

      He starts to shove every hands pre. without looking at his cards and loves it...

      What is the bottom of your calling range (assuming you will be HU)?
  • 20 replies
    • Jan217
      Jan217
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      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 626
      Provided you are super rolled for the limit and dont mind about variance id say something like 77+ JQ+ KT+

      This is strictly provided you are the last one in the hand. With people left to act behind me Id probabely tighten up to 99+ AQ+
    • ihufa
      ihufa
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      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      Originally posted by Jan217
      Provided you are super rolled for the limit and dont mind about variance id say something like 77+ JQ+ KT+

      This is strictly provided you are the last one in the hand. With people left to act behind me Id probabely tighten up to 99+ AQ+
      wrong wrong wrong

      off the top of my head:

      22+ A2o+ K2+ Q5+ J9+
    • Jan217
      Jan217
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      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 626
      Originally posted by ihufa
      Originally posted by Jan217
      Provided you are super rolled for the limit and dont mind about variance id say something like 77+ JQ+ KT+

      This is strictly provided you are the last one in the hand. With people left to act behind me Id probabely tighten up to 99+ AQ+
      wrong wrong wrong

      off the top of my head:

      22+ A2o+ K2+ Q5+ J9+
      Ok but that's only correct if we assume he keeps doing it after he gets called one time. Otherwise I think there is much more future EV than direct EV in folding for example 22 and waiting for a hand we really have solid equity with.

      Why take a 51% spot when when we can get it in with 70% in 20% (assuming its 6 handed and the other 4 players play the same way) of future scenarios.
    • ihufa
      ihufa
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      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      It's a cashgame, not a tournament. He should take every +ev spot he can get. Wether the fish will stop doing it is irrelevant.
    • Jan217
      Jan217
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      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 626
      Heh? In cash games we weigh the merits of a certain action by the effect it will have on the future games and our future EV all the time:

      Having a 3bet-bluffing range has the added benefit of increasing our action when we 3bet with monsters; 3betting BU vs a weak regs SB open has the added benefit that he will fold more SB to us in future spots.

      Just because an action is +EV doesn't mean we should take it if there is a higher +EV action/game plan available.

      In most situations I agree we should just stick to whatever is most directly +EV in a given hand, since future game is usually very unpredictable, but when it is as predictable as in this scenario I think we can do better.
    • ihufa
      ihufa
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      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      This scenario isn't predictable at all, and wether you think the fish stays or not it'll still be better to get it in 50% of the time with 51%+ than 25% of the time with 70%+ (obv).

      There are 4 other people at the table waiting to bust him so we can't just pass on +ev spots hoping even bigger +ev spots come later, since when they do we'll have reloaded anyways and be ready for them.
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Originally posted by Jan217
      Heh? In cash games we weigh the merits of a certain action by the effect it will have on the future games and our future EV all the time:

      Having a 3bet-bluffing range has the added benefit of increasing our action when we 3bet with monsters; 3betting BU vs a weak regs SB open has the added benefit that he will fold more SB to us in future spots.

      Just because an action is +EV doesn't mean we should take it if there is a higher +EV action/game plan available.

      In most situations I agree we should just stick to whatever is most directly +EV in a given hand, since future game is usually very unpredictable, but when it is as predictable as in this scenario I think we can do better.
      But his playing against a fish who might decide to leave the next hand or once he gets stacked and you will never see him again. If his really wasted he might pass out :)

      When a drunk guy like that starts open shoving every hand there's a time limit on those $$$ :)
    • Phgrinder
      Phgrinder
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      Joined: 16.02.2009 Posts: 1,002
      i'd rather play bacaratt than call with a 51% equity for stacks

      even if im -EV on 1 bacaratt roll i look more baller doing it hahaha
    • phantommm92
      phantommm92
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      Joined: 14.05.2010 Posts: 1,464
      everything that is said bout 51% equity is wayyy not true, if you were already playing the 1/2 game, you assume you do have an edge, so just another fish joins, if you call with 51% equity in 400bb pot, means this hand on average you make 4bb, if there is rake, it will already be -ev for you, not even considering the huuuuge variance involved, so i'd say we should call at least 55% or so
    • aceonetheriver
      aceonetheriver
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      Joined: 26.12.2008 Posts: 591
      the guy is drunk ! obv the best move is call anytwo and tell him u won , duuh !
    • Jan217
      Jan217
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      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 626
      Originally posted by ihufa
      This scenario isn't predictable at all, and wether you think the fish stays or not it'll still be better to get it in 50% of the time with 51%+ than 25% of the time with 70%+ (obv).

      There are 4 other people at the table waiting to bust him so we can't just pass on +ev spots hoping even bigger +ev spots come later, since when they do we'll have reloaded anyways and be ready for them.
      In the exact spot where we have the option to call with 51% equity we have 2% edge so we get 100%*2% = 2% profit if we call. If we wait theres a 20% chance we will be the first to wake up with the next strong hand out of the 5 non fish players, 20%*40%+ edge = 8%. I'd take those 8% plus reduced variance any day.

      I think assuming that after someone calls him he keeps playing the same way so that we will get the same +EV future spots whether we call or fold is not true for 90%+ of fish, but assuming the fish will keep shoving until someone calls him once is true for at least 90% of fish who start doing this shove ATC thing.
    • bradomurder
      bradomurder
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      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,329
      just dont look at your cards either, then your flipping, if you add in the blinds you gain 1.5bb per hand and you never have to fold so it's more fun
    • ragney
      ragney
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      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      Originally posted by bradomurder
      just dont look at your cards either, then your flipping, if you add in the blinds you gain 1.5bb per hand and you never have to fold so it's more fun
      lol pretty solid actually :f_biggrin:
    • conall88
      conall88
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      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 1,715
      Personally I would be calling with any ace, any king any suited Queen with an 8 kicker or higher, any two broadways and 55 or better if he is shoving 100%.

      This gives you about 60% equity vs 100% ship range.
    • phantommm92
      phantommm92
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      Joined: 14.05.2010 Posts: 1,464
      Originally posted by conall88
      Personally I would be calling with any ace, any king any suited Queen with an 8 kicker or higher, any two broadways and 55 or better if he is shoving 100%.

      This gives you about 60% equity vs 100% ship range.
      imo you'r counting it in a wrong way, the bottom of our range should have x equity, in your example, K2o has only 50,5%, so what's the point in taking suck a small edge?

      if we want to have 55% with the bottom of our ranges, we should call
      44+,A2s+,K5s+,Q8s+,J9s+,A3o+,K7o+,Q9o+,JTo
    • datsmahname
      datsmahname
      Global
      Joined: 23.11.2009 Posts: 1,366
      Originally posted by 13BlackCats
      At the casino, a drunk guy that just won £40k ($60k) on roulette comes to play some £1/2 poker and buys in for 200BB.

      He starts to shove every hands pre. without looking at his cards and loves it...

      What is the bottom of your calling range (assuming you will be HU)?
      Rake free and 200bb effective stacks, any hand with >50% equity vs a random is enough. Now, if they're taking say 5bb in rake then subtract that from the total pot size when you call. In which case we need ~200/395 = 50.64% equity.

      This hand range has enough equity to stack off against his ATC ship:
      33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q3s+, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, A2o+, K3o+, Q6o+, J8o+, T9o
    • Schrader69
      Schrader69
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      Joined: 08.03.2008 Posts: 345
      this guys obv on a heater & prob has about 10% extra suckout equity
    • Targetme
      Targetme
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      Joined: 04.05.2009 Posts: 1,888
      call any two if no one behind get him mad $profit$
    • bradomurder
      bradomurder
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      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,329
      Originally posted by Targetme
      call any two if no one behind get him mad $profit$
      cos he'll play worse than blind shoving every hand?
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