Will It Ever End

    • SecurityDrew
      SecurityDrew
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.05.2008 Posts: 78
      So I have had some frustration in the last 18 months playing poker. My ROI has dropped from around 10% in 08/09 to around 2% and in cases is negative. And I am not talking about even mid stakes. I am talking at the mircros. This morning was typical, where I started out on 4 tables and had bullets busted by JJ. Then KQ lost to K7 in a push situation, and so I donked off 7K of chips in another tourney since I am having a tough time these days with my tilt level.

      This has been going on for about 2 months now, so I decided to start this blog to see if I can identify what my issues are. Am I just playing bad? Like Mike Matasow, am I the victim of some UB conspiracy.

      So I'll start documenting trying to climb out of this hole and back into some semblance of poker normallacy.

      quick bio - signed up for PS.COM in 2008. Played the SSS for about a year on iPokerwith success. Started playing SNG in 09 on Party, Stars and FT. Made about $10k that year and $5k in '10. My high point was having a $5k roll on PP and plating a few of the $100 SNG. Felt like I had made the big time.

      So this year, 2012. I took a $50 starting stack on 888 from PS and ran it to around $100. Ended up going up and down on the $3 SNGs so I took the roll and moved it to PP. Had some success and had to pull some money out for computer equipment. Here is the graph.



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      During my last down swing in April, I decided to pull my roll and move over to stars. Started with about $200 and have slowly grinded my way down to $100, losing about 100 in bonuses as well.



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      Even tried hypers for a bit



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      I have posted my stats at a previous post here

      So what am I doing;

      During this period, I quiz myself 50 hands per day on SNG for bubble play Usually get around 90%. I do some analysis of my hands on SNG. I have been trying to minimize going out in 8/9 and usually am only doing that AA/KK to set. I have been playing around 40 SNG per day.

      What I plan to do -

      attend 2 coachings a week at the bronze/silver level
      play 40 SNG per day
      quiz 100 hands a day
      analyze games
      try to identify leaks

      Attended my first coaching yesterday with UNAM. Saw some pretty ridiculous play at the $7 stakes.

      Will try to update regularly.

      PS Signed up for the 770 bonus on iPoker. It has helped me to silver since my stars account is not linked to PS.COM. Is there a way to do that with an account not started on PS.COM?

      Here is the graph for iPoker



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      As always - many thanks to PS.Com for running such a great site.
  • 25 replies
    • Andyuk18
      Andyuk18
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.12.2010 Posts: 527
      Hey man, sorry to see you're running bad! How many hands do you play per day? Variance is a sick thing and most people don't understand just how sick and long a down swing can be. If you're playing 1k hands or less per day then it could last a while!

      I've been going through a similar stretch over my last 60,000 hands (in SNGs) and just starting to get out of it now. Ofc, our mindset when going through a bad run is the most important thing, and will decide how quickly you recover from it, or not at all. If you feel yourself tilting then just end your session early.

      Also, we can't blame everything on variance and luck, as i'm sure everyone has leaks they can fix and new things they can learn to improve their game and lower the luck factor more. It seems you are doing that so good job and good luck. The run bad will go away eventually. :)
    • SecurityDrew
      SecurityDrew
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.05.2008 Posts: 78
      Thanks Andy for the words of encouragement. I have read some of the posts on downswings and this one just seems to never end. My BR on stars is now under $100. Today -$7.63 , -$10.11eV. I play about 50k hands a month righ now so around 1500 hands a day average.

      Even had AA cracked twice today. This was the best one:

      http://www.pokerhand.org/

      http://www.pokerhand.org/?6389495

      I called the UTG+1 raise as I wanted UTG to ship it and since he had over 2x the raise I can either call a UTG+1 push or push over his call. Indeed UTG+1 tanked before pushing (imagine tanking in a $1 SNG!! could be multi tabling).

      Here is UTG+1 stats - only 122 but showing up as a rock



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    • LudiCoka
      LudiCoka
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2009 Posts: 266
      Wow, you're surely near that "worst run" statistical model. I guess you will need something like 20 000 games for that to even out... I'm sorry for your luck.

      It's a wonder really how you find motivation to grind it out but keep at it, you will surely succeed.

      P.S. Here's a side note - if I player thinks at some spot then he "thought" for a while, not "tanked" :) .
    • TheGuyFromCIA
      TheGuyFromCIA
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.09.2011 Posts: 188
      Subscribed!

      I hope this bad run will end soon for you. Good luck!
    • Tiltmeifucan
      Tiltmeifucan
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.04.2012 Posts: 471
      Hey Drew

      What a downswing!


      Hope you even out soon, will be following you for sure! Good luck man. Don't give up :club:

      Tilt, best regards
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Very ugly run, sir. Keep working on your game like you are doing and the results will eventually come.

      All the best,
      Tim64
    • SecurityDrew
      SecurityDrew
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.05.2008 Posts: 78
      First off - thanks to all for the word of encouragement.

      OK So it has been another dismal week. One bright spot was on Friday when I actually had an up swing, and posted a profit for the day. You can see it on the graph.



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      I made it to one coaching this week and sat in with The Nose. Good Session. I think I am a bit nitty with my resteals compared to Unam, so I will try to widen that a bit.

      the other coaching did not come off as Chenny8888 forgot about it. tsk tsk :D

      Maybe next weeek.

      Achieved my number of games this week. Did my analysis of games in SNGWiz. Running good for most of the games. Not biggest # of X is for not pushing SB vs BB, ButI have lost alot of equity there so I prefer to wait until I am around 6-7BB before making those pushes.

      did my practice on SNGWiz quizes. running about 90% on the AVG setting for icm 4-6 players in order to practice bubble play.

      Of note - I get a little spewy when playing against donks who just can't fold to a pot sized 3 bet from the blinds and end up hitting TP with that J2s. Need more control there. Another point is I am getting impatient when I end up HU with blings at 75/150. It just takes so damn long to get to the PF and using the nash. Have to work on that patience.

      Hand of the Week


      PokerStars Hand #80483532825: Tournament #561147536, $1.32+$0.18 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2012/05/15 12:16:22 ET
      Table '561147536 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
      Seat 1: Folyle (1510 in chips)
      Seat 4: Ssunman11 (1390 in chips)
      Seat 5: SecurityDCS (1560 in chips)
      Seat 6: luckyroxy21 (4460 in chips)
      Seat 7: Krivko (2300 in chips)
      Seat 8: CIDCaller (1470 in chips)
      Seat 9: Sweareke (810 in chips)
      Krivko: posts small blind 15
      CIDCaller: posts big blind 30
      *** HOLE CARDS ***
      Dealt to SecurityDCS [Ac As]
      Sweareke: raises 90 to 120
      Folyle: raises 255 to 375
      Ssunman11: folds
      SecurityDCS: calls 375
      luckyroxy21: folds
      Krivko: folds
      CIDCaller: folds
      Sweareke: raises 435 to 810 and is all-in
      Folyle: raises 700 to 1510 and is all-in
      SecurityDCS: calls 1135
      *** FLOP *** [5h Qd Kc]
      *** TURN *** [5h Qd Kc] [Qh]
      *** RIVER *** [5h Qd Kc Qh] [5s]
      *** SHOW DOWN ***
      Folyle: shows [Qc Qs] (four of a kind, Queens)
      SecurityDCS: shows [Ac As] (two pair, Aces and Queens)
      Folyle collected 1400 from side pot
      Sweareke: shows [Tc Ts] (two pair, Queens and Tens)
      Folyle collected 2475 from main pot
      Sweareke finished the tournament in 7th place
      *** SUMMARY ***
      Total pot 3875 Main pot 2475. Side pot 1400. | Rake 0
      Board [5h Qd Kc Qh 5s]
      Seat 1: Folyle showed [Qc Qs] and won (3875) with four of a kind, Queens
      Seat 4: Ssunman11 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
      Seat 5: SecurityDCS showed [Ac As] and lost with two pair, Aces and Queens
      Seat 6: luckyroxy21 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
      Seat 7: Krivko (small blind) folded before Flop
      Seat 8: CIDCaller (big blind) folded before Flop
      Seat 9: Sweareke showed [Tc Ts] and lost with two pair, Queens and Tens

      Followed closely by

      PokerStars Hand #80682174583: Tournament #562962432, $1.32+$0.18 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2012/05/19 8:51:28 ET
      Table '562962432 1' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
      Seat 1: robi8800 (740 in chips)
      Seat 2: DenHaaGKobuS (3310 in chips)
      Seat 3: Fantizzy (1600 in chips)
      Seat 4: helul (1300 in chips)
      Seat 5: keta_sam (990 in chips)
      Seat 6: SecurityDCS (1445 in chips)
      Seat 7: jessdjey (1050 in chips)
      Seat 8: Tzed86 (1440 in chips)
      Seat 9: GEORGEIKARIA (1625 in chips)
      Fantizzy: posts small blind 25
      helul: posts big blind 50
      *** HOLE CARDS ***
      Dealt to SecurityDCS [Ad Ah]
      keta_sam: folds
      SecurityDCS: raises 75 to 125
      jessdjey: folds
      Tzed86: folds
      GEORGEIKARIA: calls 125
      robi8800: folds
      DenHaaGKobuS: calls 125
      Fantizzy: calls 100
      helul: calls 75
      *** FLOP *** [8h Td Qd]
      Fantizzy: checks
      helul: checks
      SecurityDCS: bets 350
      GEORGEIKARIA: folds
      DenHaaGKobuS: folds
      Fantizzy: calls 350
      helul: calls 350
      *** TURN *** [8h Td Qd] [Qc]
      Fantizzy: checks
      helul: checks
      SecurityDCS: bets 837
      Fantizzy: calls 837
      helul: calls 825 and is all-in
      *** RIVER *** [8h Td Qd Qc] [2c]
      Fantizzy: checks
      SecurityDCS: bets 133 and is all-in
      Fantizzy: calls 133
      *** SHOW DOWN ***
      SecurityDCS: shows [Ad Ah] (two pair, Aces and Queens)
      Fantizzy: shows [3d 3s] (two pair, Queens and Threes)
      SecurityDCS collected 290 from side pot
      helul: shows [8d 2d] (two pair, Queens and Eights)
      SecurityDCS collected 4150 from main pot
      helul finished the tournament in 9th place
      *** SUMMARY ***
      Total pot 4440 Main pot 4150. Side pot 290. | Rake 0
      Board [8h Td Qd Qc 2c]
      Seat 1: robi8800 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
      Seat 2: DenHaaGKobuS (button) folded on the Flop
      Seat 3: Fantizzy (small blind) showed [3d 3s] and lost with two pair, Queens and Threes
      Seat 4: helul (big blind) showed [8d 2d] and lost with two pair, Queens and Eights
      Seat 5: keta_sam folded before Flop (didn't bet)
      Seat 6: SecurityDCS showed [Ad Ah] and won (4440) with two pair, Aces and Queens
      Seat 7: jessdjey folded before Flop (didn't bet)
      Seat 8: Tzed86 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
      Seat 9: GEORGEIKARIA folded on the Flop

      Gotta love 3 way pots with AA
    • SecurityDrew
      SecurityDrew
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.05.2008 Posts: 78
      Here is mine:



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    • Tiltmeifucan
      Tiltmeifucan
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.04.2012 Posts: 471
      I love it! :heart: What's his, her name?

      Best regards, Tilt :)
    • Aruniux
      Aruniux
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.04.2011 Posts: 207
      sorry dude but its never end :) jokerstars have something bad and none can prove it, only feel that something wrong here:)

    • TheMoment
      TheMoment
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.12.2011 Posts: 215
      nice blog, nice cat too :f_biggrin:

      tho downswing is not nice :f_frown:

      will follow your blog
    • SecurityDrew
      SecurityDrew
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.05.2008 Posts: 78
      Her name is Chai after the tea!!
    • SecurityDrew
      SecurityDrew
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.05.2008 Posts: 78
      Got the goods on a good converter at deauces cracked from Tiltmeifucan's blog. So I am reposting my two hands of the week. 3 ways AI with AA.

      Hand #1
      Poker Stars $1.32+$0.18 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 7 players - View hand 1772112
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG+1: t1510 50.33 BBs
      MP: t1390 46.33 BBs
      Hero (CO): t1560 52 BBs
      BTN: t4460 148.67 BBs
      SB: t2300 76.67 BBs
      BB: t1470 49 BBs
      UTG: t810 27 BBs

      Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is CO with A :club: A :spade:
      UTG raises to t120, UTG+1 raises to t375, 1 fold, Hero calls t375, 3 folds, UTG raises to t810 all in, UTG+1 raises to t1510 all in, Hero calls t1135

      Flop: (t3875) 5 :heart: Q :diamond: K :club: (3 players - 2 are all in)

      Turn: (t3875) Q :heart: (3 players - 2 are all in)

      River: (t3875) 5 :spade: (3 players - 2 are all in)

      Final Pot: t3875
      UTG+1 shows Q :club: Q :spade: (four of a kind, Queens)
      Hero shows A :club: A :spade: (two pair, Aces and Queens)
      UTG shows T :club: T :spade: (two pair, Queens and Tens)
      UTG+1 wins t1400
      UTG+1 wins t2475


      Hand #2
      Poker Stars $1.32+$0.18 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 9 players - View hand 1772111
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      CO: t740 14.80 BBs
      BTN: t3310 66.20 BBs
      SB: t1600 32 BBs
      BB: t1300 26 BBs
      UTG: t990 19.80 BBs
      Hero (UTG+1): t1445 28.90 BBs
      UTG+2: t1050 21 BBs
      MP1: t1440 28.80 BBs
      MP2: t1625 32.50 BBs

      Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is UTG+1 with A :diamond: A :heart:
      1 fold, Hero raises to t125, 2 folds, MP2 calls t125, 1 fold, BTN calls t125, SB calls t100, BB calls t75

      Flop: (t625) 8 :heart: T :diamond: Q :diamond: (5 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets t350, MP2 folds, BTN folds, SB calls t350, BB calls t350

      Turn: (t1675) Q :club: (3 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets t837, SB calls t837, BB calls t825 all in

      River: (t4174) 2 :club: (3 players - 1 is all in)
      SB checks, Hero bets t133 all in, SB calls t133

      Final Pot: t4440
      SB shows 3 :diamond: 3 :spade: (two pair, Queens and Threes)
      BB shows 8 :diamond: 2 :diamond: (two pair, Queens and Eights)
      Hero shows A :diamond: A :heart: (two pair, Aces and Queens)
      Hero wins t290
      Hero wins t4150


      View all 2 hands
    • Tiltmeifucan
      Tiltmeifucan
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.04.2012 Posts: 471
      Originally posted by SecurityDrew
      Her name is Chai after the tea!!
      How cool is that :)

      Good luck man. It should be your time to run above EV :s_thumbsup:

      Best regards, Tilt
    • SecurityDrew
      SecurityDrew
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.05.2008 Posts: 78
      I am a little bit up this week, but running bad today, so I figured I would make a post before the weekend.

      140 games so far with 4.6% ROI.



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      One of the things I like about stars is being able to colour the avatar ring. I do mine based on stats 7-10 handed and lump people into loose, rocks and TAGS. I then use my HEM to add tags such as fish or shark.

      Here are some shots that show various tables. Red usually means regs, green fish and blue regs that r good. Don't usually get a good sample size with the loose guys. Go figure!! :)



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      Does anyone have a good note taking system they like and can recommend?

      Keep Grinding!!
    • alxpoker91
      alxpoker91
      Gold
      Joined: 03.12.2011 Posts: 1,015
      i have to say.very ugly downswing.

      about notes.i mark with
      -red all multitablers
      -dark purple good regs
      -pink regs with small sample(less than 1000 games)
      -orange break even regs
      -yellow bad regs
      -light blue fishes
      -dark blue some random reads like (66 shove 50bb or limp AA at 200 blind with)

      anyway i table select a lot.it is very good.

      good luck at the tables
    • SwordsDrawn
      SwordsDrawn
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 65
      SecurityDrew:

      Just so you know AA against any 2 underpairs preflop has ~67% equity, so arguably A7s against 88's is just as big of a beat since 88's preflop have ~67% equity as well. What makes it a bigger deal is that you had AA's that time and that hand is supposed to be unbeatable.
    • SecurityDrew
      SecurityDrew
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.05.2008 Posts: 78
      So the last week was typical. over 188 games I managed to lose $3.31 to be almost $27 under eV. Here is the graph.



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      I am making progress on 770 despite the 20% rake on the $1 games .



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      Notable hands this week.

      I got AA cracked twice in one game. Incredible.

      Also got my 5th royal


      Poker Stars $1.32+$0.18 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 6 players - View hand 1778243
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: t1385 46.17 BBs
      MP: t1256 41.87 BBs
      CO: t4749 158.30 BBs
      BTN: t3195 106.50 BBs
      Hero (SB): t1485 49.50 BBs
      BB: t1430 47.67 BBs

      Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is SB with Q :heart: K :heart:
      3 folds, BTN calls t30, Hero calls t15, BB checks

      Flop: (t90) T :heart: A :heart: Q :diamond: (3 players)
      Hero checks, BB checks, BTN checks

      Turn: (t90) J :heart: (3 players)
      Hero checks, BB checks, BTN checks

      River: (t90) 4 :diamond: (3 players)
      Hero checks, BB bets t45, BTN calls t45, Hero raises to t150, BB calls t105, BTN folds

      Final Pot: t435
      Hero shows Q :heart: K :heart: (a Royal Flush)
      BB mucks 3 :diamond: K :club:
      Hero wins t435

      I wasnt really looking for value as I wanted to go to showdown. Poor Daniel Negraneau still looking for #1

      Best live player burn: Daniel Negreanu turned a king-high straight flush but didn't get to showdown after everyone folded. He asked to rabbit hunt the river since he'd never made a royal flush before. The river didn't change that, and Lex "RaSZi" Veldhuis and Andrew Robl couldn't believe that Negreanu had never hit a royal before. "Well, you're a live player," said RaSZi. "You play like 300 hands a year."

      Read more: http://www.pokernews.com/news/2010/03/high-stakes-poker-season-6-episode-6-a-new-crew-gets-comfort-8067.htm

      For the next week:

      200+ SNG last week 224
      Daily Session Reviews
      2 Coachings (1 last week thx Chenny/Akrammon)

      Tip of the day - try 8tracks.com and the App for iPhone good mixes for everyone.
    • SecurityDrew
      SecurityDrew
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.05.2008 Posts: 78
      So last week was typical. Down on Stars. UP a bit on 770. If fact my 770 free $50 br has mlmost caught up to my Stars br. So I concede to Stars. You have beat me, and I cannot beat the $1 SNG. Here are the graphs.



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      So I decided to switch it up and take advantage of a reload bonus on PP. I have had success on party before, so I am keeping my fingers crossed. First day looked goo, and then it went a little downhill.



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      Goals for this week:

      Grinding Party - going to try for 250+ games to try and max my bonus.
      daily session review
      missed the coaching this week, as i read the time wrong on the board. Although it was at 6 am, I was up and thought it started at 9.
      daily SNG Wiz Quiz
      .


      Can anyone recommend any good videos for using HEM and WIZ for hand analysis?

      Guidance on stats for the HUD would also be appreciated.

      mine is set up for



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