[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 AQ river chRAI

    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Black
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,330
      $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players -

      Hero (BB): $42.44
      UTG: $26.43
      CO: $26.85
      BTN: $5.38
      SB: $43.85

      Pre Flop: ($0.37) Hero is BB with A :spade: Q :heart:
      1 fold, CO raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.62) 4 :heart: J :spade: 3 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $1.21, Hero calls $1.21

      Turn: ($4.04) Q :club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $3.00, Hero calls $3

      River: ($10.04) A :club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $6.00, Hero raises to $37.48, CO calls $15.89 all in


      CO



      Preflop I've just called to keep his whole range in play, because he's folding a lot to 3bets.
      He misses this flop very often, and wont barrel much turn without a hit, so I check/called on the flop, I can improve, float him oop by the river, and I can even be ahead some of the time.
      On the turn I thought with TPTK a chR would be an overplay, because it would fold out most of the hands I beat (Qx, maybe Jx), and isolate me against stronger hands (33/44/JJ/QJ/KK/AA).
      What would you play on this river? Although the perfect barrel card arrived, but based on my reads and his stats, this river barrel is close to 100% for value from him. Is chRAI an overplay here? He could maybe herocall with AK/AJ/QJ, and call with sets/straight obviously.
  • 9 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello pcfmcc02,

      The problem is that I don't see him 2nd barreling many of those KT/AK hands, which makes him not that likely to have straight nor AK for TPTK.

      Therefore it's towards AJ/QJ and vs the whole range I don't even mind going for Check/Raise for value:

      Board: 4:heart: J:spade: 3:diamond:  Q:club:  A:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    45.45%  45.45%   0.00% { QQ-JJ, 44-33, AJs, QJs, AJo, QJo }
      UTG+1  54.55%  54.55%   0.00% { AsQh }

      But rather the question is if our play is that good on the flop? What's your plan on the blank turn?

      Best Regards.
    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Black
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,330
      Thanks veriz. My plan on a blank turn was to check/fold, because I would assume the same as you wrote, that I dont see him 2nd barreling me light. As most of his flop cbetting range missed, he will give up a lot of the times on the turn, so after a turn check/check I can decide on the river to go for a showdown if unimproved with A high, or try to float him oop and make him fold some weak underPPs.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by pcfmcc02
      Thanks veriz. My plan on a blank turn was to check/fold, because I would assume the same as you wrote, that I dont see him 2nd barreling me light. As most of his flop cbetting range missed, he will give up a lot of the times on the turn, so after a turn check/check I can decide on the river to go for a showdown if unimproved with A high, or try to float him oop and make him fold some weak underPPs.
      Depends on our hand and on the turn card, vs such opponents with made hands as smaller PPs we could even donk the turn. :) To avoid him Checking behind but with such a case I would agree while he ain't going to 2nd barrel anyways and there ain't that many cards which we should be scared of (overcards).
    • KillerFishes
      KillerFishes
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 2,313
      I don't agree that he will not make a 2nd barrel with KT ...

      OTT - he got + eq, great scare card for pps => plenty FE ...

      it's std 2nd barrel with KT imho, AK depends on the player ;)


      since you will like never bluff there ... I don't think you can profitably ch-r here with shove, tbh .. I doubt he's calling with QJ ...

      huge valuetowning for me ...
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by KillerFishes
      I don't agree that he will not make a 2nd barrel with KT ...

      OTT - he got + eq, great scare card for pps => plenty FE ...

      it's std 2nd barrel with KT imho, AK depends on the player ;)
      Just take a look at his CB on the turn which isn't that huge (very small even), so I would assume him just going for Check behind while also being a bit more passive. So very small part of his draw range is going to 2nd barrel.


      Originally posted by KillerFishes
      since you will like never bluff there ... I don't think you can profitably ch-r here with shove, tbh .. I doubt he's calling with QJ ...
      If you assume him folding QJ then of course we ain't going for value cause the equity wouldn't be good enough for us. Which of course I didn't pay attention in first place W$SD is higher side, therefore comes up to heros assumptions.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      If we don't expect him to barrel than why not betting ourselves OTT?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      If we don't expect him to barrel than why not betting ourselves OTT?
      Would be an option but do you think we have bigger value with that? Most likely could even be the case cause we could pick up the Bet sizes ourselves. But neither I don't mind the Check here if we assume 2streets value ain't going to work.
    • KillerFishes
      KillerFishes
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 2,313
      @veriz

      he has cbet OTT 40% that's NOT low! ....

      if he would have 20%, ok I will probably say you're right ... However, like this? he cbets almost 1/2 range from flop ... do you really think he doesn't cbet KT OTT when he hits OESD? come on ... He has equity + fold equity ...

      why would he chb? I just don't see a single reason for him.

      I think he checks back hands like AT,A9,K9,pps ... but NO way KT :)
      chb with KT here is a SIN! :D
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Mate, it's almost 9k hands. I have never seen someone playing for 9k hands and having CB on turn 20%. :D

      As you may have read, I didn't say that he isn't capable of doing that but what I said rather small % of his range is going to do that.

      Why would he Check behind? Cause he rarely has much fold equity vs Jx, just some smaller PPs vs his equity is still strong by even Checking behind. Plus avoids to get Check/Raised -> could be scared of it.

      Every opponent isn't playing the same way as you do. ;)