[NL20-NL50] SH50 Zoom, KQ river value bet?

    • DailyDollarPro
      DailyDollarPro
      Silver
      Joined: 11.07.2011 Posts: 145
      Villain stats: 107 hands - 36/17, 0% fold to 3bet, 27% foldt to flop c-bet, 33% fold to turn c-bet, 31% wtsd.

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      Mp:
      $311.17
      (Hero):
      $130.87


      Preflop: Hero is Co with Q, K.
      folds, Mp raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4.25, 3 folds, calls $2.75.

      Flop: ($9.25) 3, 5, T (2 players)
      checks, Hero bets $5.00, Mp calls $5.00.

      Turn: ($19.25) Q (2 players)
      checks, Hero bets $13.00, Mp calls $13.00.

      River: ($45.25) 6 (2 players)
      Mp checks, Hero???

      Effective stacks at the river is $108 behind. Do we like bet/folding here? If so, what size to bet? Or do we just take the showdown?
  • 9 replies
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      preflop I'd just call. It plays so nice IP and when we 3bet we let him fold a lot of hands we dominate. You have only 107 hands so that fold to 3bet stat can't be that correct.

      When we 3bet I like flop and turn but I check behind river... I don't see weaker hands calling.
    • DailyDollarPro
      DailyDollarPro
      Silver
      Joined: 11.07.2011 Posts: 145
      There are a few reasons why I three bet this hand here.

      1) Isolation: Flatting can invite the Btn, SB and BB to over flat with a wide range. I'd much rather play HU than multi way.

      2) Control: I don't want to be playing passively and let villain control the hand. This is especially important when we are this deep.

      3) Theft: I don't even mind if villain folds pre and I win his raise plus the blinds.

      4) Balance: When people look at their HUD stats on me, I want them to see a 3bet stat higher than 3%, otherwise I play all 3bet pots face up.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      3betting preflop this deep is a must with just about any hand you want to play unless you have huge whales behind you know will make it more profitable than 3betting. Usually this is not the case. It's straight forward value in here.

      As played, river is very thin and given that 6d is not a complete blank I would opt to check behind in this instance. I think the BD flush and 3 barrels will make him fold rather often whatever you have beat. Only hand you beat that calls is QJ imo. If he had a very big WTSD like 40+% I would value bet this since know he could level many Tx calls, JJ, maybe even a hand as weak as 99, 76.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Ow you are superdeep...

      Well, when just 100bb deep, do you agree with a call?
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Originally posted by EmanuelC16
      3betting preflop this deep is a must with just about any hand you want to play unless you have huge whales behind you know will make it more profitable than 3betting. Usually this is not the case. It's straight forward value in here.

      As played, river is very thin and given that 6d is not a complete blank I would opt to check behind in this instance. I think the BD flush and 3 barrels will make him fold rather often whatever you have beat. Only hand you beat that calls is QJ imo. If he had a very big WTSD like 40+% I would value bet this since know he could level many Tx calls, JJ, maybe even a hand as weak as 99, 76.
      Why 3bet with almost any hand you want to play? :$
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      @100bb deep: Against this opponent, probably 3betting is still better since he calls OOP.

      This deep I would 3bet almost any hand I want to play because he will call OOP very light since we are deep which is probably wrong if he doesn't have a skill edge. Deeper stacks give the player IP and more skilled one a bigger advantage, as long as the SPR isn't too low. To call profitably, opponent would need to make up for positional disadvantage with skill. He also has a card disadvantage.

      Basically, by 3betting we isolate the raiser knowing he calls light and increase our chances to be IP postflop in a HU pot and we rep a stronger range. When we call, our range will be capped so deep, there's no question about that, unlike 100bb deep where you could flat some premiums. You can also call many 4bets when deep, unlike 100bb where calling 4bets will be -EV usually.
    • Lukasz40i4
      Lukasz40i4
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.07.2009 Posts: 644
      Why do you cbet in the first place? He has less than 30% ftcb.

      Do you think he will fold to cb more often in 3b pot?


      I would decide if bet or not on the villain. If he is aggresive and/or tricky, I would just check behind. If he is passive, I would bet/fold like 1/3-1/2p.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Originally posted by Lukasz40i4
      Why do you cbet in the first place? He has less than 30% ftcb.

      Do you think he will fold to cb more often in 3b pot?


      I would decide if bet or not on the villain. If he is aggresive and/or tricky, I would just check behind. If he is passive, I would bet/fold like 1/3-1/2p.
      Given our pot equity and immediate FE, 1/2 cbet is already profitable. This doesn't account for FE on turns and rivers.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello DailyDollarPro,

      Preflop: Being so deep I'd also almost always 3bet here and might even do it for value as long the guy calls so many hands OOP -> fold to 3bet = 0%.
      Flop: Pretty standard CB the flop with our position while you also have backdoors for yourself and working overcards + of course fold equity. CBetting also secures us a free card for river (we can decide what to do on the turn).
      River: I do like the idea of deciding on the opponent here, either to Bet it for value or not according either aggressive or not. If he is passive then I'd definitely go for thin value, he has enough of Tx/PP hands which would be hero-calling with his WTSD and even if not we don't really care, ~1/3 for value.

      Best Regards.