[NL20-NL50] NL20 AJs facing BB squeeze

    • Rogbey
      Joined: 25.01.2012 Posts: 50
      I have quite a few hands on villain and his squeeze percentage is 7.7% so I feel he has a lot of hands in his range he will fold. I presume he will call with TT+, AK+ which is about 45% of his range here and he will fold 55% and against his calling range I have around 32% equity. So I presume this is a +ev shove correct?

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($20.10)
      BB ($21.30)
      UTG ($37.67)
      UTG+1 ($22.30)
      CO ($16.20)
      Hero ($20.62)

      Dealt to Hero J:spade: A:spade:

      UTG raises to $0.70, fold, CO calls $0.70, Hero calls $0.70, SB raises to $3.70, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $20.62 (AI), SB calls $16.40 (AI)

      FLOP ($41.80) 6:club: 9:diamond: 8:spade:

      TURN ($41.80) 6:club: 9:diamond: 8:spade: 8:club:

      RIVER ($41.80) 6:club: 9:diamond: 8:spade: 8:club: Q:club:

      Hero shows J:spade: A:spade:
      (Pre 30%, Flop 21.8%, Turn 13.6%)

      SB shows A:club: K:heart:
      (Pre 70%, Flop 78.2%, Turn 86.4%)

      SB wins $39.71
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343

      if you don´t 3-bet yourself then I think folding is better option. He does not really squeeze too many hands against UTG range and since your hand looks a lot like middle pp I think he would call there AQ+, 99+, so you likely does not have that much fold equity.

      best regards,