[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH, TP check R for bluffcatch

    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

      BTN: $7.78 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: 1.2, Hands: 62
      SB: $10.00 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 13, 3B: 10, AF: 1.2, Hands: 406
      BB: $12.03 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 0.1, Hands: 51
      UTG: $9.78 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 16, 3B: 5, AF: Infinity, Hands: 109
      MP: $11.40 - VPIP: 29, PFR: 25, 3B: 5, AF: Infinity, Hands: 51
      Hero (CO): $14.19 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 7, AF: 4.1, Hands: 22078

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with Q :heart: J :spade:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 1 fold, BB calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.95) Q :spade: 5 :spade: 5 :heart: (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.70, BTN calls $0.70, BB folds

      Turn: ($2.35) 7 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.65, BTN calls $1.65

      River: ($5.65) 6 :club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $5.13, Hero calls $5.13

      Note, that Villains sample size is small. Also I might not have such info about his stats at the time.

      Generally my plan on the Flop and Turn is to bet for value vs.
      FD and JJ-88.
      Checking River to induce busted FD and maybe some light value bets.
      Too bad that 66 and 77 get there, but I feel like I have some value there anyway, because
      he will mostly check back mid PP's weak Qx.
      Bet AQ, KQ, 66, 77 missed FD's, sometimes random Ax.

      I need about 32% equity.
      Equity Win Tie
      36.11% 36.11% 0.00% QhJs
      63.89% 63.89% 0.00% 77-66, AQs, KQs, AsJs, KsJs, AsTs, KsTs, As9s, Ks9s, Js9s, Ts9s, As8s, Ks8s, 9s8s, As7s, 8s7s, As6s, As4s, As3s, As2s, AQo, KQo

      It's close to that given the range, if he bluffs all those FD's.
      There are a lot of options. For Ex., if he bets light for value too, but
      that's less realistic, I think.

      If he 3bets AQ on the Flop or Turn, then I have even better EQ on the River.
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Anger86,

      Guess should be fine as long with some stronger hands he might have raised earlier like 5x. Another option would be to go for thin value from him and weaker PPs & block-bet. :)

      Best Regards.