[NL2-NL10] 3 barrel spot w AK missing?

    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $114.77 (114.8 bb)
      SB: $146 (146 bb)
      BB: $50 (50 bb)
      UTG: $113.86 (113.9 bb)
      Hero (MP): $103.50 (103.5 bb)
      CO: $98.50 (98.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with A J
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, BB raises to $8.50, Hero calls $5.50

      Flop: ($17.50) 7 3 2 (2 players)
      BB bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50

      Turn: ($28.50) 2 (2 players)
      BB bets $10.50, Hero calls $10.50

      River: ($49.50) Q (2 players)
      BB bets $25.50 and is all-in, Hero calls $25.50

      Results: $100.50 pot ($2.80 rake)
      Final Board: 7 3 2 2 Q
      BB showed K A and won $97.70 ($47.70 net)
      Hero showed A J and lost (-$50 net)


      Hey Gerv,

      I am trying to figure out how this dude is playing. I think he is bad but I am not too sure yet. i.e in this hand I think this is a bad 3 barrel spot here for him since my range OTT is mostly PP and I am never folding those OTR. Btw I am not saying that I played this hand well btw ( I kind of decided to call down OTF). This is an example of how he plays.

      Here are villain stats over 1k hands

      VP:26/PFR:25/AF:6.8/WTSD:30.
      Steal: BU:85 CO:24 SB:75
      Fold to resteal:62
      Call to rst:14
      4B to rst:24

      3B: from MP vs EP:15
      3B from CO (vs EP,MP): 7.1,17.2
      3B from BU(vs EP,MP,CO): 8.7,21,7
      3B from SB (vs EP,MP,CO,BU):5,5,10,24
      3B from BB (vs EP,MP,CO,BU): 8,12,0,20

      CBet (F,T,R):89,74,60

      So here you go, he is quite aggro barrel happy. vs a full stack guy I have no pb waiting for a good hand and stack him off. But here since he is only 50bb deep he manages to CBet so cheaply that I am not sure what to do. basically he is CBet 100% of flops for 1/4-1/3 pot.

      In the end I am playing a guessing game vs those guys and I hate it. Would minraise many flops be an option? or 4B shove wide preflop?

      Any advices welcome :)

      Thanks
      Max
  • 3 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hey,

      Shoving $41.5 into $22.5 isn't a real mistake I think. I think he is NOT doing this with the premium hands as he is either multitabling too much or thinks he can get more value from it anyway vs you

      That said his range is capped and since he is barrel happy you can either call Flop & then jam the Turn if he bet/folds

      Or you can shove or indeed something funky as a minraise

      The problem with the latter one is that he puts the last bet in there which I don't like from our POV since it is harder for him as multitabling MSS'er to make a ''good'' call rather than a ''good'' shove as shove yields FEQ

      Now let's solve the following formula with the given variables:
      • CallingRange (when you shove): 77-TT & 2-3 AK combo's
        Equity = 24.9%


      So with
      EV = Pot*Foldequity + (1-Foldequity)[(eff.Stack+Deadmoney)*Equity – (eff.Stack*(1-Equity))]

      Using Excel, we are break-even at a Fold Equity of 48%.

      If his calling range is 24 combo's, he needs to have an additional 24 to make this shove profitable.

      There are limitations to this one calculation namely:
      ** The more AK he calls, the more -EV it becomes
      ** The less PPs he has, the more +EV it becomes
      ** Hence we should take into consideration the history with this player, at some point he notices what you are doing


      So I would minraise with supernutty hands to see if he spazzes & shove with hands that need fold equity.

      Since u have >1k hands on him, why dont you filter his ''3bet=true , showdown=true/false'' and see if he is balanced in betsizing//range :) ?

      - Gerv

      PS Give me a shout on skype for the Excel sheet on Google Docs
    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      hey Gerv,

      Yeah I had a look at his hands. here is what I noticed that should be enough to exploit him:

      It seems like he is taking that line of 3 small bets for value (even though in that hand posted he only had AK)
      I minR him on the flop when he 1/2 pot and he folded on KJxss
      He seems to fold a lot to 4B (even min4B) (i.e very wide 3B and narrow shoving range)
      When he checks the flop he usually gives up.

      So I think that if I play back at him it should be pre flop or OTF because I think he isn't folding anything once he bets small flop and turn.

      I will try to gather more info on this dude and pay attention to see if my reads are good.

      Thanks
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by Dublimax
      hey Gerv,

      Yeah I had a look at his hands. here is what I noticed that should be enough to exploit him:

      It seems like he is taking that line of 3 small bets for value (even though in that hand posted he only had AK)
      I minR him on the flop when he 1/2 pot and he folded on KJxss
      He seems to fold a lot to 4B (even min4B) (i.e very wide 3B and narrow shoving range)
      When he checks the flop he usually gives up.

      So I think that if I play back at him it should be pre flop or OTF because I think he isn't folding anything once he bets small flop and turn.

      I will try to gather more info on this dude and pay attention to see if my reads are good.

      Thanks

      That's a good start yes :) I generally want to get a feeling of his 4bet range more precisely as well so I can calculate my 4bet bluff range