Hey,

Shoving $41.5 into $22.5 isn't a real mistake I think. I think he is NOT doing this with the premium hands as he is either multitabling too much or thinks he can get more value from it anyway vs you

That said his range is capped and since he is barrel happy you can either call Flop & then jam the Turn if he bet/folds

Or you can shove or indeed something funky as a minraise

The problem with the latter one is that he puts the last bet in there which I don't like from our POV since it is harder for him as multitabling MSS'er to make a ''good'' call rather than a ''good'' shove as shove yields FEQ

Now let's solve the following formula with the given variables:

- CallingRange (when you shove): 77-TT & 2-3 AK combo's

Equity = 24.9%

So with

EV = Pot*Foldequity + (1-Foldequity)[(eff.Stack+Deadmoney)*Equity – (eff.Stack*(1-Equity))]

Using Excel, we are break-even at a Fold Equity of 48%.

If his calling range is 24 combo's, he needs to have an additional 24 to make this shove profitable.

There are limitations to this one calculation namely:

** The more AK he calls, the more -EV it becomes

** The less PPs he has, the more +EV it becomes

** Hence we should take into consideration the history with this player, at some point he notices what you are doing

So I would minraise with supernutty hands to see if he spazzes & shove with hands that need fold equity.

Since u have >1k hands on him, why dont you filter his ''3bet=true , showdown=true/false'' and see if he is balanced in betsizing//range

?

- Gerv

PS Give me a shout on skype for the Excel sheet on Google Docs